- The Lions are a 10-point home favorite against the Bears.
- The Bears have lost 12 straight against NFC opponents on a winning streak.
- My Lions vs. Bears prediction is for Detroit to cover the spread.
The Thanksgiving slate kicks off from Detroit with the Lions hosting the Bears at Ford Field.
Detroit’s streak of covers continued in Week 12 with a 24-6 beatdown of the Colts. That leaves the Lions at 10-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season, with eight covers in their last nine games.
Chicago covered the spread for the second straight week in Week 12. However, it lost 30-27 against the Vikings as 3.5-point dogs.
Bet on Lions vs. Bears and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 13 Odds: Lions vs. Bears
Lions vs. Bears Prediction
Based on the Bears’ struggles away from home and Detroit’s outstanding defensive play, my Lions vs. Bears prediction is the Lions Spread (-10.5, -110).
Normally, I’d love to back the Bears in this spot, knowing all the tickets and money are going to come in on the Lions.
But I just can’t bring myself to do it, given the strength of Detroit’s defense….without two of its most important players: Aidan Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone.
Since Week 7, Detroit ranks second in defensive EPA per play and first in defensive success rate.
While the Bears have improved offensively over their last two games – 13th in EPA per play, 10th in success rate – they’ve proven taking that offense on the road is a challenge.
Chicago’s points per game average sits at 22.2 at Soldier Field.
Away from home, it sits at 17.6 points per game, including a measly 13 against Houston, the defense closest in quality to Detroit by defensive DVOA.
I’m also taking this chance to sell the Bears defense, which has recorded weak metrics against generally bad opponents.
Chicago ranks 19th in defensive DVOA having faced the seventh-easiest set of opposing offenses.
Comparatively, the Lions rank second in offensive DVOA having faced the 11th-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
History also suggests this is a good spot to back the Lions.
Thursday favorites in November-December that closed a favorite in their previous game are 60% ATS since 2003.
When oddsmakers price those favorites at -9 or higher, they improve to 21-9 ATS.
As a result, continue to ride the Lions on Thursday at home against the Bears.
Betting Lions vs. Bears: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 22% | 16% | 51% | 21% |
| Lions | 78% | 84% | 49% | 79% |
