- The Lions are an 8.5-point home favorite against the Commanders.
- The Lions have won 15 straight games against opponents on a winning streak.
- My Lions vs. Commanders prediction is the Lions to cover the first half.
Off an exhilarating win as road underdogs in Tampa Bay, the Commanders continue their playoff run with a trip to Detroit.
Washington won and covered as three-point dogs in a 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, ending a long drought of rookie quarterback losses in road postseason games.
Now, they’ll get the top seed in the conference. When bettors last saw the Lions, they cruised to a 31-9 home win over the Vikings to earn the top seed.
Bet on Lions vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Divisional Round Odds: Lions vs. Commanders
Lions vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on Detroit’s strength in the first half and the Commanders’ weak record as big underdogs in the opening half, my Lions vs. Commanders prediction is the Lions 1H Spread (-6.5, -110).
It’s a big number to lay on the surface, but Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have historically excelled in the first half.
The duo is 39-14-1 ATS (73.6%) in the first half over the previous three seasons, including 13-4 this season.
When the pair are a market favorite: 28-9 ATS in the first half over that span, including 4-0 ATS at -6.5 or higher.
Perhaps most impressive about the pair: they’re 16-4 ATS as favorites in the first half when their opponent is coming off a win, including 7-1 this season.
While Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels owns a decent first-half ATS record (10-7), the results start to dwindle as he becomes a bigger underdog.
Daniels is only 3-3 ATS as a market dog in the first half this season, including 1-2 against the Eagles and Ravens.
It’s also only the fourth time this season Washington will close higher than +3.5 in the first half. In the three prior games, they’re 1-2 ATS, losing each by at least seven points.
From a matchup standpoint, Detroit also carries edges over both the Washington offense and defense.
The Lions lead the league in first-half offensive EPA per play, while Washington ranks fifth in the corresponding defensive category.
Meanwhile, Detroit ranks seventh defensively in EPA per play, while the Commanders rank ninth offensively.
As a result, lay the points with the Lions in the first half.
Betting Lions vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Lions vs. Commanders public betting data and insights.
