Chargers Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Chargers win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Massive improvement came for the Chargers in Jim Harbaugh’s first season. A year after winning only five games, the Chargers jumped to 11 wins, good for second in the division. 

After that successful campaign, Los Angeles finds itself listed amongst the top choices in the Super Bowl odds. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Los Angeles’ 2025 win total and my Chargers win total prediction. 

Chargers Win Total Odds

The Chargers’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Oddsmakers rate each side of the win total as the same price. Currently, both over 9.5 wins and under 9.5 wins are priced at -110 for an implied probability of 52.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Wins

Chargers Win Total Prediction, 2025

Los Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 Wins (-110)

Based on the Chargers’ departures on defense and their weak wide receiving corp, I predict the Chargers finish Under 9.5 Wins (-110). 

BET: Chargers Over 9.5 Wins @ -110

BET: Chargers Under 9.5 Wins @ -110

I can make the case in either direction for the Chargers, especially given my stance on the Chiefs Over Under Wins. 

What’s interesting about the Chargers: they’re clearly designed as a run-first team, but struggled to run the ball last year. 

Harbaugh’s offense ranked 21st in rush offense DVOA, 18th in rush EPA per play and 27th in rushing success rate. 

Comparatively, the Chargers finished eighth in pass offense DVOA, 12th in pass EPA per play and 18th in dropback success rate. 

Adding guard Mekhi Becton and running back Najee Harris should help bolster the ground game. With Becton’s arrival, I rate the Chargers offensive line amongst the best in the league. 

For as much as I value those additions, Mike Williams arriving in place of Josh Palmer feels like a decline. Plus, this defense – amongst the best last year – lost a number of key players. 

Joey Bosa departs for Buffalo, Poona Ford leaves for the Rams, Kristian Fulton leaves for Kansas City and Morgan Fox leaves for Atlanta. 

That’s a lot to overcome for a defense that ranked ninth in defensive DVOA last year and won a lot of games on the backs of a strong defense. 

Last season, the Chargers finished 8-2 in games where they allowed 17 or fewer points. Otherwise, they finished 3-5. 

Of bigger concern: Los Angeles rarely saw a worthy offensive challenger, given they played a last-place schedule in 2024. 

The Chargers played the sixth-easiest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com, with only six games against top-11 offenses. 

Remove those six games from their schedule, and bettors will find they finished 10-1 SU in the other 11 contests. 

Of course, it’s not like the Chargers face a murderer’s row of offenses in 2025. 

Based on last year’s offensive DVOA ratings, the Chargers face only five games against teams that produced a positive rating in 2024. 

That might help offset the defensive departures and lead to a more successful campaign for the Chargers. 

At the same time, my bullishness on both the Broncos and Raiders leads me to back the under on Los Angeles’ win total.

Most Wins in Chargers History

The Chargers’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. They went 14-2 in 2006 before losing in the Divisional Round.

Fewest Wins in Chargers History

The Chargers’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2000, the Chargers posted a 1-15 record.

They also recorded a pair of two-win seasons in 1973 and 1975.