Patriots Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Patriots win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

New England struggled again in 2024, winning only four games in Jerod Mayo’s debut season. Patience wavered in the front office with Mike Vrabel taking over after Mayo’s first season. 

Despite minimal success last season, New England arrives at the 2025 season with a win total four victories higher than last year’s line. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for New England’s 2025 win total and my Patriots win total prediction. 

Patriots Win Total Odds

The Patriots’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Oddsmakers expect the under is the more likely outcome. Currently, the Patriots are -140 to win eight or fewer games in 2025 for an implied probability of 58.3%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with four or fewer wins is +115, an implied probability of 46.5%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 8.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 5.5 Wins

Patriots Win Total Prediction 2025

New England Patriots Over 8.5 Wins (+115)

Based on the Patriots’ easy schedule and likely defensive improvement, I predict the Patriots finish Over 8.5 Wins (+115). 

BET: Patriots Over 8.5 Wins @ -115

BET: Patriots Under 8.5 Wins @ -105  

Movement has already occurred on this number as the Patriots opened with a win total set at 7.5 wins. 

Support has come in on the over, moving the total to 8.5 wins. 

While the idea of taking the worst of the number disinterests me, I see the logic behind backing the over in Foxborough. 

Last season, New England finished as an unlucky team. They won four games against five expected, due to a 1-4 record in field-goal games and a 3-6 record in touchdown games. 

Behind a new head coach and second-year quarterback Drake Maye, positive regression could be in the cards next season. 

Regarding Maye, it should be acknowledged how much he improved in the latter half of the season. 

In Weeks 9-17, 15 quarterbacks completed at least 320 plays. Within that group, Maye ranked sixth in completion percentage and fifth in completion percentage over expectation. 

If Maye continues that success behind a rebuilt offensive line and upgraded receiving corps, I like backing this defense to take a major step forward in 2025. 

New England fell from ninth in defensive DVOA in 2023 to 30th in 2024, per ftnfantasy.com. 

But it should be acknowledged that New England plays a significantly easier set of offenses in 2025. 

Last season, the Patriots played the 18th-hardest set of opposing offenses. All 17 opponents combined to average an offensive DVOA rating of +0.1%. 

Next season, the Patriots play the eighth-easiest set of opposing offenses. Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, New England’s 2025 opponents average a -2.09% rating. 

That’s ultimately why I maintain this team could contend in the AFC East. Plus, they face a super-easy schedule, particularly at home. 

Only the 49ers’ opponents feature a lower cumulative win total than New England. At home, they play only two of nine games against playoff teams from 2024. 

For those reasons, it’s the over or nothing on New England this season.

Most Wins in Patriots History

The Patriots’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 16. New England went undefeated in 2007 during the regular season but lost their chance at a perfect season when they fell to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Patriots History

The Patriots’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. New England finished with a 1-15 record in 1990.