- The Patriots’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 4.5 wins at BetMGM.
- New England finished with four wins last season, their second straight year under .500.
- Why bettors should expect another poor season from New England.
For the 2024 NFL season, the Patriots win total sits at 4.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
On the heels of a second consecutive season under .500, New England parted ways with head coach Bill Belichick. Last season, the Patriots finished with only four wins.
That result earned them the third overall pick in the NFL Draft. After adding veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett in free agency, the Patriots drafted Drake Maye.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for New England’s 2024 win total.
Patriots Win Total Odds
The Patriots’ season win total is set at 4.5 games.
The odds for New England to win at least five games is -135, an implied probability of 57.4%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with four or fewer wins is +110, an implied probability of 47.6%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:
- Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
- New York Jets: 9.5 Wins
- Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Wins
- New England Patriots: 4.5 Wins
Patriots Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Patriots Under 4.5 Wins (+130)
I liked this under a lot better when it was 5.5 wins, with the under juiced to -140.
However, I still lean to the under at 4.5 wins, but the play is largely driven by the plus-money price available on the under.
New England notched only four wins last season, and one could argue they were lucky to get there.
They beat the Jets on the road against Zach Wilson and picked up a win over a Steelers team starting Mitch Trubisky.
If those teams have their starting quarterbacks for those games, one could argue the Patriots lose those games.
Although the Patriots finished 3-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer last season, I question how a rookie quarterback and/or Jacoby Brissett move the ball.
According to rbsdm.com, last season, New England ranked 31st in EPA per play, 31st in dropback EPA, and 24th in rushing EPA per play.
Patriots Over/Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 4.5 | -135 | +110 |
| Week 2 | 5.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Week 3 | 5.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Week 4 | 5.5 | -125 | +105 |
Most Wins in Patriots History
The Patriots’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 16. New England went undefeated in 2007 during the regular season but lost their chance at a perfect season when they fell to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl.
Fewest Wins in Patriots History
The Patriots’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. New England finished with a 1-15 record in 1990.
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