Saints Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Saints win total sits at 6.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Saints produced a strong start to 2024, winning each of its first two games with at least 40 points. 

But injuries derailed the Saints thereafter. New Orleans finished on a 3-12 run, costing head coach Dennis Allen his job. Now, former Eagles coordinator Kellen Moore takes over as coach. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for New Orleans’ 2025 win total and my Saints win total prediction. 

Saints Win Total Odds

The Saints’ season win total is set at 5.5 games, and oddsmakers expect five or fewer wins from New Orleans. 

Currently, the Saints are -120 to finish under 5.5 wins for an implied probability of 54.5%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with six or more wins is +100, an implied probability of 50%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 5.5 Wins

Saints Win Total Prediction 2025

New Orleans Saints Under 5.5 Wins (-120)

Based on New Orleans’ unknown quarterback situation, I predict the Saints finish Under 5.5 Wins (-120).

BET: Saints Over 6.5 Wins @ +170

BET: Saints Under 6.5 Wins @ -210  

Prior to Derek Carr’s retirement announcement, I carried a bullish opinion about the Saints in 2025. But now, they’re stuck with a team that finished 0-7 in non-Carr starts last season. 

For Moore and the new quarterback, improving the offense is a big task. Not since the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era has New Orleans ranked 16th or better in offensive DVOA. 

In three of the previous four seasons, New Orleans finished 22nd or worse in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Further illustrating their offensive issues last season: New Orleans finished 5-1 when the defense allowed 19 or fewer points and 0-11 when it allowed 20 or more. 

An optimistic case does exist for the New Orleans offense. Last season, no offense lost more adjusted games (87.3) to injury than the Saints. 

In the first four weeks of the 2024 season, New Orleans ranked fifth in EPA per play and 13th in success rate, per rbsdm.com. However, all of those games were Carr starts. 

Perhaps the bigger problem for the Saints is a declining defense. 

New Orleans declined in defensive DVOA each of the previous four seasons. The team went from second to ninth to 15th to 21st over the last four years. 

However, another optimistic case arises in favor of the Saints’ defense. 

Next season, the Saints are projected to face the ninth-easiest set of opposing offenses, based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings. 

That represents an easier schedule compared to last season, when New Orleans played the 14th-easiest set of opposing offenses. 

Generally, the Saints face the third-easiest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals. 

Excluding their divisional games against the Buccaneers, New Orleans plays only two games against playoff teams from last season. 

Plus, the Saints trended unlucky last season with a 6-11 expected record. Driving that underperformance: a 2-4 record in field-goal games and a 2-5 mark in touchdown contests. 

But without clarity around the quarterback position, I’m inclined to back the under despite some signals suggesting a bet on the over.

Most Wins in Saints History

The Saints’ record for most wins in a single season is 13, accomplishing that four times, the last of which was in 2019.

Fewest Wins in Saints History

Their season with the fewest wins was 1980, when they won just one game. They have three seasons where they won just two games.