- The Saints’ 2024 preseason win total is set at 7.5 wins at BetMGM.
- Based on expected record, New Orleans finished as an unlucky team last year.
- Will an easy strength of schedule allow New Orleans to clear a low win total?
For the 2024 NFL season, the Saints win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
New Orleans, in their first season behind quarterback Derek Carr, earned their first winning season since 2021. However, a 9-8 finish didn’t secure New Orleans a postseason berth.
Despite finishing at 9-8, good for second in the NFC South, the Saints failed to reach the postseason.
Notable offseason moves include the departure of Michael Thomas and the addition of Chase Young on the defensive side.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for New Orleans’ 2024 win total.
Saints Win Total Odds
The Saints’ season win total is set at 7.5 games, and oddsmakers expect eight or more from New Orleans.
Currently, the Saints are -120 to win eight or more games, an implied probability of 54.5%.
Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with seven or fewer wins is +100, an implied probability of 50%.
Here are the 2024 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:
- Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Wins
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Wins
- New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins
- Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Wins
Saints Win Total Prediction 2024
LEAN Saints Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
This win total is very difficult to evaluate.
On the one hand, the Saints finished unlucky last year. Based on expected win-loss record, the Saints ran a full win-and-a-half below expectation.
Amongst all four NFC South teams, New Orleans posted the best-expected win-loss record despite finishing second in the division.
That discrepancy, along with the fifth-easiest schedule in 2024, could be enough to send New Orleans over a low win total in 2024.
But this is simultaneously a New Orleans side with a quarterback/head coach combination I don’t trust, along with a glaring deficiency on defense.
Since taking over the top job, Saints coach Dennis Allen is a disappointing 11-8 SU as a favorite. Over that two-year span, he’s produced the third-worst ROI for bettors in that spot.
Additionally, in each of the last two seasons, New Orleans ranked in the bottom-10 of PFF’s pressure grades.
The good news? New Orleans faces only seven games this season against teams 12th or better in offensive EPA per play during the 2023 regular season.
Plus, this is a New Orleans team that ranked 10th or better in defensive EPA per play each of the last two seasons.
If new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can resolve issues on their offensive line and provide a boost to the offense, the Saints could easily clear this number.
However, given my lack of faith in Allen and Derek Carr, I’ll pass on betting the over.
Saints Over Under Wins, Live Odds
| Week Number | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preseason | 7.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Week 2 | 7.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Week 3 | 10.5 | +130 | -160 |
| Week 4 | 9.5 | -120 | +100 |
Most Wins in Saints History
The Saints’ record for most wins in a single season is 13, accomplishing that four times, the last of which was in 2019.
Fewest Wins in Saints History
Their season with the fewest wins was 1980, when they won just one game. They have three seasons where they won just two games.
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