- I predict the Eagles, Texans and Ravens are the top Survivor choices in Week 2.
- Why there’s a case for saving the Ravens for a future week.
The NFL season is back along with NFL football knockout contests for fans and bettors alike.
For those unfamiliar with the contest, players choose one team each week to capture a straight-up victory and advance to the next week if that team wins.
The catch? Players can only use a team once throughout all 18 weeks, so the contest requires some advance planning.
Here, I’ll break down my approach to Week 2’s survivor pick and the best selection for players. NFL betting lines are reflective at the time of writing.
NFL Week 2 Survivor Candidates
Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Houston Texans (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
NFL Week 2 Survivor Pick
Houston Texans (-6.5) vs. Chicago Bears
I won’t fault anyone who wants to use the Ravens as the obvious choice in Week 2.
After all, John Harbaugh is 22-4 SU as a favorite with 10 or more days between games, including 15-1 outside the division.
But, there are ample other opportunities to use the Ravens in the future: Week 9 vs. Denver, Week 15 vs. New York (N) and Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh.
The same can’t be said about the Texans.
Week 6 against New England and Week 12 against the Titans are the supplemental spots, but I love this Week 2 spot for Houston.
Historically, big favorites against teams that struggled offensively win at a high rate.
Since 2003, home favorites at -6 or higher against a team that accumulated 200 or fewer yards in their previous game are 79.2% SU.
When those opponents are coming off a win, the home favorite improves to 36-7 SU (83.7%), including 24-2 SU when the favorite also won their previous game.
From a matchup standpoint, I worry about Chicago’s ability to stop the Houston ground game.
The Texans ranked seventh in run block win rate last week and face a Bears unit that ranked 19th in the corresponding defensive metric.
Houston also excelled at home last season with C.J. Stroud. In eight regular season and playoff games in Houston, the Texans finished 6-2 with Stroud as their starter.
The only two losses? Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
Add in Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is only 6-22 SU as an underdog — including 1-8 off a win — and I’ll take the Texans behind a healthy Stroud.
If you’re new to survivor, learn how a survivor pool works.
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