Packers vs Vikings Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 8:17 AM
  • The Packers (0-0) are -1.5 point favorites vs the Vikings (0-0)
  • Watch the game on FOX
  • Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points

The Green Bay Packers (0-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (0-0) on Sep. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm ET in Minneapolis.

The Packers are betting favorites in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Packers vs. Vikings Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 1

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Green Bay Packers-1.5 -11046.5 -110-120
Minnesota Vikings +1.5 -11046.5 -110+100

Packers vs. Vikings Prediction for Week 1

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 1 NFL matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both the Packers and Vikings, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.50 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josiah Deguara has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 1, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 46% ROI)
  • K.J. Osborn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Dalvin Cook has hit the Receptions Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alexander Mattison has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Packers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Dalvin Cook +600
Aaron Jones +600
Justin Jefferson +700
Adam Thielen +800
AJ Dillon +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Vikings vs Packers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Justin Jefferson -120
Dalvin Cook -115
Aaron Jones -110
Adam Thielen +100
AJ Dillon +120

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Vikings vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Adam Thielen 49.5 -115 49.5 -115
Dalvin Cook 19.5 -110 19.5 -115
Justin Jefferson 81.5 -115 81.5 -115
K.J. Osborn 37.5 -115 37.5 -110
AJ Dillon 14.5 -115 14.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Vikings vs Packers

Player Name Over Under
Aaron Jones 51.5 -115 51.5 -115
Kirk Cousins 3.5 -115 3.5 -115
AJ Dillon 47.5 -115 47.5 -115
Dalvin Cook 70.5 -115 70.5 -115
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 3Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Packers were 1-2 (.333) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Packers were 9-2 (.818) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — second-best in NFL. The Vikings allowed 252.9 passing yards per game last season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Packers were 10-1 (.909) when not losing a fumble last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .577.

The Packers were winless (0-3) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .259.

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Vikings were winless (0-2) when rushing less than 20 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .121.

The Vikings were winless (0-6) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .165.

The Vikings were 1-4 (.200) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .420.

The Vikings were 1-7 (.125) when rushing less than 25 times last season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .270.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings scored on 36.4% of their drives in the first quarter last season — fifth-best in NFL. The Packers defense allowed scores on 35.9% of opponent drives in the first quarter last season — fourth-worst in NFL.

Vikings WRs had 29 receiving touchdowns last season — second-most in NFL. The Packers allowed 31 receiving touchdowns last season — tied for third-most in NFL.

The Vikings have a third down conversion rate of just 37.1% in the first half since the 2020 season — third-worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 38.8% in the first half since the 2020 season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

The Packers ran successful plays on 48.8% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL. Vikings allowed successful plays on 47.4% of rush attempts last season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Packers have been successful on 48.8% of plays they have run since the 2020 season — second-best in NFL. Vikings have allowed their opponents to be successful on 47.5% of plays since the 2020 season — third-worst in NFL.

The Packers have run successful plays on 47.7% of rush attempts since the 2020 season — tied for best in NFL. Vikings have allowed successful plays on 49.0% of rush attempts since the 2020 season — tied for worst in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Packers ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 54% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers were flagged 29 times on offense last season — fewest in NFL.

The Packers have committed 22 turnovers since the 2020 season — fewest in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Vikings went three and out on 24% of their drives in the 4th quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Vikings ran none of their plays in the red zone in Week 18 — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Vikings went three and out 19 times in the 2nd quarter last season — most in NFL.

The Vikings ran successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Packers defense allowed first downs on 31% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 50% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers defense allowed first downs on 41% of rush attempts in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27%.

The Packers defense allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 1

The Vikings defense tackled opponents for a loss on just 29 of 468 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) last season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.

The Vikings defense sacked opponents 7 times in Week 18 — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Vikings defense allowed 200.7 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 160.3.

The Vikings defense allowed an average of 27.4 fantasy points per game as a unit to WRs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.