Patriots vs Packers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:04 AM
  • The Packers (2-1) are -9.5 point favorites vs the Patriots (1-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): 40 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The New England Patriots (1-2) visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Green Bay.

The Packers are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Packers Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Patriots+9.5 -11040 -105+375
Packers -9.5 -11040 -115-500

Patriots vs. Packers Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Packers will win this Week 4 game with 78.0% confidence.

Patriots vs Packers Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread this Week 4 with 69.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Patriots and Packers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kendrick Bourne has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.20 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Best Packers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Packers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Aaron Rodgers has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Randall Cobb has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.60 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots have gone 0-2 (-2.1 Units / -65.63% ROI).

  • Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -28.17% ROI
  • Patriots are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Patriots are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Packers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 15.79% ROI
  • Packers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Packers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Patriots are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .195.

The Patriots are 9-5 (.643) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2021 season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .538.

The Patriots are 2-4 (.333) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2021 season — tied for 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.

The Patriots are undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the third quarter since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .844.

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Packers are 6-3 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Packers are undefeated (12-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .632.

The Packers are undefeated (5-0) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .690.

The Packers are 13-2 (.867) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .728.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 79.8% of pass attempts this season — highest in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 6.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

No Matchup notes for this Game

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Patriots committed 4 turnovers in Week 3 — tied for most in NFL.

The Patriots have not gone three and out on any of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Patriots have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 59% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Packers ran successful plays on 54% of plays in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 13% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 3 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Packers have run 15% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Patriots defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 73 carries (10.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted WRs 24% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/29 plays) in Week 3 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Patriots defense allowed just 6.6 points per game to opposing offenses (112 points / 17 games) in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10.9.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted TEs 59% of the time (17 Pass Attempts/29 plays) in Week 3 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts in the 2nd half since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers defense allowed 1 of 16 (6%) first downs on the ground in Week 3 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

The Packers defense has allowed first downs on 16% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Packers defense has allowed first downs on just 23% of plays on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.