Raiders vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5 MNF

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:06 AM
  • The Chiefs (3-1) are -7 point favorites vs the Raiders (1-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) on Oct. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-115).

The Raiders vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 51.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Chiefs vs Raiders & all NFL games with BetMGM

Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Raiders+7 -10551.5 -110+275
Chiefs -7 -11551.5 -110-350

Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 5 game with 79.8% confidence.

Raiders vs Chiefs Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread this Week 5 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Raiders and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Interceptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.45 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Interceptions Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Raiders

    Player Name Over Under
    Davante Adams 76.5 -115 76.5 -115
    Josh Jacobs 18.5 -120 18.5 -110
    Darren Waller 51.5 -110 51.5 -115
    JuJu Smith-Schuster 50.5 -115 50.5 -110
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire 17.5 -115 17.5 -110

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Raiders

    Player Name Over Under
    Josh Jacobs 60.5 -110 60.5 -115
    Derek Carr 7.5 -115 7.5 -115
    Patrick Mahomes 18.5 -115 18.5 -115
    Clyde Edwards-Helaire 49.5 -115 49.5 -115
    Isaih Pacheco 22.5 -115 22.5 -115
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have scored last in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 2H Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 15 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders have gone 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -51.11% ROI).

    • Raiders are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -60.16% ROI
    • Raiders are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
    • Raiders are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

    Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

    • Chiefs are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 10.13% ROI
    • Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

    Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

    The Raiders are 5-4 (.556) when not forcing a turnover since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .258.

    The Raiders are 4-1 (.800) when getting 4 or more points since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .281.

    The Raiders are 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 10 rushes of four or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for 5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .675.

    The Raiders are 6-1 (.857) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2021 season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.

    Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

    The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) when not throwing an interception since the 2021 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have intercepted 8 passes since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

    The Chiefs are 11-5 (.688) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — ninth-best in NFL. The Raiders have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — tied for third-worst in NFL.

    The Chiefs are 11-2 (.846) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2021 season — sixth-best in NFL. The Raiders has allowed an average time of possession of 34 min and 26 s since the 2021 season — highest in NFL.

    The Chiefs are 7-5 (.583) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .282.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

    The Chiefs have run successful plays on 55.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — second-best in NFL. The Raiders have pressured opposing QBs on just 19.3% of passing plays this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

    Chiefs RBs have averaged 9.0 yards after the catch this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 9.0 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — third-worst in NFL.

    Chiefs QBs have been 5 sacked this season — tied for second-fewest in NFL. The Raiders have sacked the quarterback 5 times this season — second-fewest in NFL.

    The Raiders were successful on 54.2% of plays they have run last week — fifth-best in NFL. Chiefs allowed their opponents to be successful on 58.6% of plays in Week 3 — second-worst in NFL.

    Raiders RBs have 48.0 receiving yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 54.6 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

    The Raiders have thrown the ball 68.0% of the time in the red zone this season — fifth-highest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

    Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Raiders converted first downs on just 36 of 73 plays (49%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 62%.

    The Raiders averaged 12.4 yards per attempt (1,143 yards/92 attempts) on passes up the middle last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 8.5.

    The Raiders have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

    The Raiders have converted first downs on just 42 of 86 plays (49%) on 3rd and short since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

    Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Chiefs have run successful plays on 55% of plays in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

    The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 60% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

    The Chiefs have scored on 49% of their drives in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

    Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Raiders defense intercepted 6 of 606 attempts (101.0 pass attempts per int.) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

    The Raiders defense allowed first downs on 81% of pass attempts on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

    The Raiders defense has intercepted 8 of 741 attempts (92.6 pass attempts per int.) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.4.

    The Raiders defense has allowed 4.5 TDs per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 8 INT) since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.

    Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Chiefs defense has allowed 9.8 receptions per game (39/4) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.7.

    The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 100% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

    The Chiefs defense allowed 3 TD passes in Week 4 — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

    The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.