Raiders vs. Falcons Prediction: NFL Week 15 Odds, Betting Picks, MNF

Nick Hennion Dec 15, 2024, 10:54 AM

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Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) lines up during the first half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, in Atlanta. The Steelers defeated the Falcons 18-10.

(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)

The Raiders are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Falcons.
The Raiders have lost nine games in a row, including four of the last five by two scores.
My Raiders vs. Falcons prediction focuses on the 1H Total.

Desmond Ridder faces his former team as the Raiders host the Falcons for the second game of a MNF doubleheader.

Atlanta’s Week 14 loss to Minnesota dropped the Falcons to 6-7. In the process, the Falcons ceded the division lead to the Buccaneers, who have won three straight and sit at 7-6.

Las Vegas traveled to Tampa Bay in Week 14 and fell 28-13 as 6.5-point road underdogs. At 2-11, Las Vegas currently holds the top spot in April’s NFL Draft.

Bet on Raiders vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.

NFL Week 15 Odds: Raiders vs. Falcons

Raiders vs. Falcons Prediction, MNF

Based on Atlanta’s offensive metrics early and both teams’ penchant for high scoring first halves, my Raiders vs. Falcons prediction is the 1H Over 21 Points (-110).

These teams are a combined 16-10 to the over in the opening 30 minutes, with each team posting an 8-5 record.

But they both excel at their respective venues for Week 15. Atlanta is 5-1 to the over in the opening half away from home, while Las Vegas is 5-0 to the over at Allegiant Stadium.

To evaluate expectations for Atlanta, it’s important to consider their stretch from Week 4-10. Over that span, the Falcons closed a market favorite in all seven games.

Only twice over that span did the Falcons score fewer than 13 points in the first half. Across all seven games, Atlanta averaged 15.5 points in the first half.

That’s indicative of Atlanta’s success in the first half. The Falcons rank eighth in 1H expected points added (EPA) per play and fifth in 1H offensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.

On Monday, they get a Raiders team 21st in each of the corresponding defensive categories.

In that aforementioned seven-week span, the Falcons played four games against teams 20th or worse in 1H defensive EPA per play.

The Falcons averaged 19.5 points per game in those four halves and never scored fewer than 14 points in each first half.

While I expect Atlanta to contribute a lion’s share of the scoring, don’t count out the Vegas offense against a poor Atlanta defense.

Only the Jaguars and Panthers have worse defenses in terms of 1H EPA per play than Atlanta. In terms of 1H defensive success rate, only the Bills, Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals are worse.

Sample that seven-game stretch that featured the Falcons as favorites, and it gets worse.

Over that span, the Falcons ranked 31st in 1H defensive EPA per play and 29th in 1H defensive success rate.

While I’m wary of trusting a Raiders offense that ranks amongst the worst offenses early, an easy opponent should allow them to contribute some points.