Ravens Super Bowl Prediction: Odds Breakdown for Baltimore

As of Jan. 22, the Ravens Super Bowl odds are +200, with an implied probability of 33.3%. Prior to the NFL season, Baltimore was +1800 to raise the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 

They also possess effective -175 odds – their AFC Championship moneyline against the Kansas City Chiefs, an implied probability of 63.6% – to win the AFC Championship at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

In terms of the Super Bowl futures market, the Ravens were a slightly popular pick. At 6.1% of all tickets, they ranked seventh amongst all teams. 

At 7.0% of the total handle, Baltimore finished with the sixth-most dollars to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. 

Super Bowl 58 Betting Prediction

There aren’t a lot of problems with the Ravens, but their odds are just too short to justify a bet. (For my AFC Super Bowl futures angle, check out my Bills Super Bowl prediction.)

First, the good news: Baltimore finished the season first in total DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The bad news? The team that held the spot each of the last three years didn’t reach the Super Bowl. 

Although it’s difficult to bet against Lamar Jackson – he’s 59-22 straight up as the Ravens starting quarterback – there are glimpses of issues with the Ravens. 

They suffered home defeats to both the Colts and Browns, showing their home-field advantage is paper thin in a loaded AFC. 

Additionally, they’ve shown some concerns on defense recently. Since coming out of their Week 13 bye, Baltimore ranks 10th in defensive EPA per play and 23rd in rush defense EPA per play. 

In Weeks 1-12, they ranked second and 12th, respectively, in those two categories. 

Given those metrics, I have a hard time betting the Ravens when the Bills, Chiefs and Browns – the likely wild-card round winners, in my opinion – all rank eighth or better in DVOA. 

As a result, I’ll stay away from the Ravens in the current futures market.