Texans vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2022, 9:12 AM
  • The Jaguars (2-2) are -7 point favorites vs the Texans (0-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Houston Texans (0-3) visit TIAA Bank Field to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) on Oct. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars are betting favorites in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Texans vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Jaguars vs Texans & all NFL games with BetMGM

Texans vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 5

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Texans+7 -11043.5 -110+260
Jaguars -7 -11043.5 -110-350

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this Week 5 game with 71.0% confidence.

Texans vs Jaguars Spread Prediction for Week 5

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread this Week 5 with 54.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Texans and Jaguars, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Texans Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Texans players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Davis Mills has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Davis Mills has hit the Completions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Tyler Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Rex Burkhead has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for Week 5, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Zay Jones has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the Completions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Texans

    Player Name 1st TD Odds
    James Robinson +500
    Christian Kirk +650
    Travis Etienne +900
    Dameon Pierce +900
    Marvin Jones +1000

    Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jaguars vs Texans

    Player Name Anytime TD Odds
    James Robinson -140
    Dameon Pierce -105
    Christian Kirk +100
    Brandin Cooks +125
    Travis Etienne +160

    Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jaguars vs Texans

    Player Name Over Under
    Rex Burkhead 20.5 -110 20.5 -115
    Brandin Cooks 67.5 -115 67.5 -115
    Dameon Pierce 13.5 -110 13.5 -120
    Nico Collins 40.5 -115 40.5 -110
    James Robinson 8.5 -115 8.5 -115

    Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jaguars vs Texans

    Player Name Over Under
    Davis Mills 1.5 -115 1.5 -115
    James Robinson 61.5 -115 61.5 -110
    Dameon Pierce 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
    Trevor Lawrence 10.5 -115 10.5 -115
    Travis Etienne 34.5 -115 34.5 -115
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+10.70 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+12.05 Units / 140% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 6 of their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 99% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+6.95 Units / 139% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 20.22% ROI).

    • Texans are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -75% ROI
    • Texans are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
    • Texans are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

    Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars have gone 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

    • Jaguars are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 42.5% ROI
    • Jaguars are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
    • Jaguars are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

    Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

    The Texans are 1-14-1 (.062) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.

    The Texans are 2-13-1 (.125) when making less than 7 explosive plays since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .413.

    The Texans are winless (0-5) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.

    The Texans are 1-12-1 (.071) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .494.

    Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

    The Jaguars are 1-8 (.111) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .425.

    The Jaguars are 2-15 (.118) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .416.

    The Jaguars are winless (0-5) when the opposing team commits less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .491.

    The Jaguars are winless (0-12) when intercepting no passes since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .343.

    Additional Matchup Notes for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

    The Jaguars are averaging 6.2 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — best in NFL. The Texans have allowed 5.8 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL.

    The Texans have a third down conversion rate of just 9.8% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 14.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL.

    The Texans went three and out on 8.3% of their drives last week — tied for fourth-best in NFL. Jaguars forced three and outs on 7.7% of opponent drives in Week 3 — third-worst in NFL.

    The Texans have a third down conversion rate of just 30.4% in the first half this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 31.8% in the first half this season — fifth-best in NFL.

    Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Texans have run successful plays on 20% of plays in close and late situations this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    The Texans have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Texans have run successful plays on 22% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

    Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Jaguars committed 5 turnovers in Week 4 — most in NFL.

    The Jaguars have run 37% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in close and late situations since the 2020 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

    The Jaguars have run successful plays on 66% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

    The Jaguars have run 20% of their plays in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

    Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    The Texans defense has missed 36 tackles this season — most in NFL.

    The Texans defense tackled opponents for a loss on 9 of 23 rushing attempts (39% TFL%) in Week 4. — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

    The Texans defense has allowed an average of 27.0 fantasy points per game as a unit to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16.8.

    The Texans defense have allowed 24 broken tackles this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

    Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats for Week 5

    55% of the plays ran against the Jaguars were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

    The Jaguars defense allowed 4 rushing TDs in Week 4 — most in NFL.

    The Jaguars defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

    The Jaguars defense intercepted 6 of 542 attempts (90.3 pass attempts per int.) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 42.6.

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.