Vikings vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 18

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 06, 2023, 4:15 PM
  • The Vikings (12-4) are -4 point favorites vs the Bears (3-13)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points

The Minnesota Vikings (12-4) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (3-13) on Jan. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Chicago.

The Vikings are betting favorites in Week 18, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Vikings vs. Bears Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 18

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vikings-5.5 -11042.5 -110-250
Bears +5.5 -11042.5 -110+200

Vikings vs. Bears Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this Week 18 game with 81.5% confidence.

Vikings vs Bears Spread Prediction for Week 18

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread this Week 18 with 57.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Vikings and Bears, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kirk Cousins has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Dalvin Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • T.J. Hockenson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for Week 18, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Chase Claypool has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+6.15 Units / 111% ROI)
  • Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.95 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 54% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Vikings

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Dalvin Cook +500
Justin Jefferson +550
T.J. Hockenson +650
David Montgomery +750
Alexander Mattison +900

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bears vs Vikings

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Dalvin Cook -130
Justin Jefferson -120
David Montgomery -105
T.J. Hockenson +105
Khalil Herbert +145
  • The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.65 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 42% ROI)

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 6-9 (-3.9 Units / -22.1% ROI).

  • Vikings are 12-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.3 Units / 33.94% ROI
  • Vikings are 11-5 when betting the Over for +5.5 Units / 31.25% ROI
  • Vikings are 5-11 when betting the Under for -7.1 Units / ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears have gone 5-10 (-6.1 Units / -34.46% ROI).

  • Bears are 3-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units / -40.99% ROI
  • Bears are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
  • Bears are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Vikings are 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged just 1.2 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.

The Vikings are undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Vikings are undefeated (11-0) when favorites this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .645.

The Vikings are undefeated (8-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Bears are winless (0-2) when sacking the QB 3 or more times this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .615.

The Bears are 1-7 (.125) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bears are winless (0-6) when allowing 250 or more passing yards this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .480.

The Bears are 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .423.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Bears RBs have averaged 8.9 yards after the catch this season — third-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 8.4 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Bears have thrown for 20+ yards on 37 of 349 attempts this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Vikings allowed 20+ yards on 10.0% of attempts this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

Bears RBs have just 0.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed an average of 24 PPG this season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Vikings have thrown the ball 60.7% of the time this season — third-highest in NFL. The Bears have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback this season — tied for worst in NFL.

The Vikings have thrown the ball 61.3% of the time in the red zone this season — second-highest in NFL. The Bears have allowed a completion rate of 70.2% when defending in the red zone this season — worst in NFL.

The Vikings have scored 37 TDs in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL. The Bears have allowed 37 TDs when defending in the red zone this season — second-most in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Vikings have scored on 49% of their drives in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

The Vikings have gone three and out 31 times in the 2nd quarter since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Vikings have run the ball on 34% of plays (356 carries/1,051 plays) this season — 3rd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Vikings have run the ball on 25% of plays (17 carries/67 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Bears have run the ball on 42% of plays (87 carries/209 plays) on 3rd down this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears have been sacked on 14% of pass attempts (57/406) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Bears have thrown the ball 37% of the time (349 Pass Attempts/940 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Bears have thrown the ball 44% of the time (890 Pass Attempts/2,012 plays) since the 2021 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

Offenses facing the Vikings targeted TEs 15% of the time (90 Pass Attempts/590 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Vikings defense have forced three and outs on 15% of opponent drives since the 2021 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 411.5 yards from scrimmage per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 356.7.

The Vikings defense has allowed 288.1 receiving yards per game (4,609/16) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 235.4.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats for Week 18

The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bears defense has allowed 29 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Bears defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 38% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.