Vikings vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 12, 2022, 10:05 AM
  • The Bills (8-3) are point favorites vs the Vikings (9-2)
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Minnesota Vikings (7-1) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-2) on Nov. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Vikings vs. Bills Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 10

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Vikings+3.5 -11543.5 -110+150
Bills -3.5 -10543.5 -110-185

Vikings vs. Bills Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 10 game with 81.5% confidence.

Vikings vs Bills Spread Prediction for Week 10

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 10 with 59.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Vikings and Bills, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player high – away 

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 10, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player  high – home
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings have gone 3-4 (-1.5 Units / -16.76% ROI).

  • Vikings are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Vikings are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Vikings are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 7.91% ROI).

  • Bills are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Bills are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Bills are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Vikings are 7-1 (.875) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — third-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 14 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) at home this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .543.

The Vikings are undefeated (4-0) when not throwing an interception this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .634.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) at home this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .543.

The Bills are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .576.

The Bills are 3-2 (.600) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — tied for 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .418.

The Bills are 16-2 (.889) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .581.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — tied for best in NFL. Vikings forced three and outs on 8.3% of opponent drives in Week 9 — tied for third-worst in NFL.

The Bills have run successful plays on 52.1% of pass attempts this season — third-best in NFL. Vikings have allowed successful plays on 49.8% of pass attempts this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

The Bills have gone three and out on 11.5% of their drives this season — second-best in NFL. Vikings have forced three and outs on 13.5% of opponent drives this season — second-worst in NFL.

Vikings TEs have 21 receptions in 3 games (7.0 per game) since Week 6 — fifth-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed 7.0 receptions per game to TEs since Week 6 — tied for second-worst in NFL.

The Vikings are 7-1 (.875) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — third-best in NFL. The Bills have turned the ball over 14 times this season — fourth-most in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Vikings have run successful plays on 31% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Vikings have an average drive start position from the 39.2 yard line in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.4.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 13% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Vikings ran 54% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Bills converted first downs on 103 of 295 plays (35%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 53% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills have an average drive start position from the 33.5 yard line in the 1st quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25.4.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 49% since the 2021 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats for Week 10

Only 3% of the plays run against the Vikings have been in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Vikings defense has allowed first downs on 48% of plays in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Vikings defense has allowed a Completion Pct of 83% (19 completions/23 attempts) in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Vikings defense has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 9 carries in the red zone since Week 6 — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 10

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 69.0 (792 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.3.

The Bills defense allowed 0.7 TD passes per game (12/17) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.5.

The Bills defense allowed first downs on 26% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.