FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Welp, it was fun while it lasted.

Casual fans of the PGA Tour might ignore tournaments like the recent Rocket Mortgage Classic, 3M Open and Wyndham Championship in favor of more star-studded fields, but golf bettors know what I’m talkin’ about when I say how much I love ‘em.

Let’s face it: There’s way more inherent entertainment in the process of sifting through a full field in search of value than there is in trying to determine which elite-level star is going to beat a handful of other elite-level stars.

That’s never been more apparent than over the past few months, when the elite-level star beating the others has often been Scottie Scheffler.

All of which has led to what I’ve termed the Scheffler Conundrum. Essentially, it’s difficult to bet the No. 1-ranked player at such a short outright number, but it’s similarly difficult to fade him, because, well, he usually wins.

While fans will see the impending FedEx Cup playoffs as an opportunity to watch the game’s biggest names over the next three weeks until football season gets into full swing, bettors will largely be hoping the clock ticks away quickly until we land at such delectable fall events as the Napa Valley Golf Championship and the Black Desert Championship.

OK, so maybe that’s a stretch, but the point remains: Short-field events offer fewer betting options than the alternative. 

That doesn’t mean we can’t still seek some value, though, as I’ll not only eschew Scheffler, but also Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at single-digit prices, instead going a little bit further down the board for my initial selections.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Bets

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+2500)

It was a month-and-a-half ago when Cantlay was forced to make an early-week withdrawal after a minor injury that occurred during his training for the John Deere Classic, an announcement which drew this collective reaction: “Wait, he was training for the John Deere Classic?” As it turns out, he revealed during The Open Championship that his back “kind of acted up for two or three days,” which is concerning due to a long history of back issues.

Cantlay finished in a share of 25th place that week, his lone start since a T-5 at the Travelers Championship in late-June. There are two ways to view this in terms of this week’s impending preparation: Either he’s now fully healthy and well-rested or he’s out of form and rusty. At this 25/1 outright number, I’ll take my chances on the former, considering his game was in top form before this current pause in the season.

Conservative: Sepp Straka (+6600)

I suppose there’s a personal theme this week of chasing the proverbial jilted bridesmaids from past years. While Cantlay lost in a playoff at the most recent edition of this tournament, it was Straka who suffered that fate two years ago, losing a wild three-hole affair to Will Zalatoris. Frankly, though, it’s less about Straka’s course history and more about his current form that puts him in my plan. 

Notably, his iron play has been tremendous for a while now, gaining strokes on approach shots in 11 of his last 12 starts, many of them near the top of the field. At this point of the year, I like targeting those who have played well enough to win but haven’t done so yet, and Straka fits the profile, as does a guy like Max Homa, who owns a ton of value at 80/1 and will be on my outright card, as well. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-5 Bets

Conservative: Tommy Fleetwood (+400)

Keep it simple, stupid. I’m talking about me/us, not calling Fleetwood names. The Englishman finished top-five the last time we traveled to Memphis (T-3) and the last time he played (silver medal at the Olympics), which suggests we not overthink this one. By all measures, he’s enjoying the best season of his PGA Tour career – or at least the most consistent – which still somehow doesn’t include a victory. If you’ve been betting Fleetwood outright at PGA Tour events, you’re 0-for-142, but playing him to come close has often cashed.

Aggressive: Aaron Rai (+650)

When we seek correlative venues on the PGA Tour, we’re often indirectly inserting plenty of other variables. If a course which is on the schedule in January offers similar metrics to a course played in July, we also have to take into account different weather patterns, different grass and different players in form. 

There is, however, some correlation between Sedgefield, host of the Wyndham last week, and TPC Southwind, as evidenced by Lucas Glover employing some torrid ball-striking to win each tourney last year. After breaking through for his first PGA Tour victory, don’t be surprised to see Rai step on the gas pedal and keep things going at this one, where his skillset should again reap benefits. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-10 Bets

Conservative: Tony Finau (+260)

It’s been an impressive run for Finau, who’s claimed four top-10s and eight top-20s during an 11-tournament stretch (going back to the Texas Children’s Houston Open) where he’s gained strokes with his irons in 10 of ‘em. Finau has been criticized in the past for being a bit skittish when in contention, but it’s well within reason to suggest that his close calls this year haven’t included any scenarios in which he shied away from victory. I don’t mind an outright play here, but I really like playing his floor.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+600)

For those who don’t believe in the Golf Gods or karma, you might want to skip past these next couple of plays. I’ll start with McCarthy, a buddy of Max Greyserman, who was there to console the rookie and give him a little pep talk after a shocking end to the Wyndham that saw him parlay a late four-shot lead into a two-shot loss. That isn’t the only reason to like him, of course. 

In the final round, McCarthy enjoyed/endured the personal anomaly of ranking third in tee-to-green ball-striking, but lost strokes with his putter. I love the idea of banking on one of the game’s best rock-rollers to find the bottom of the cup more often in Memphis. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-20 Bets

Conservative: Billy Horschel (+115)

He might not have asked for it, but Rai was being followed by a personal cheerleader in Horschel on Sunday afternoon as his playing partner rooted for his shots, asked if he wanted leaderboard information, and even pumped his first after the title-clinching birdie putt.

It’s hard not to see the dichotomy of Matt Kuchar extending the tournament to a fifth day for his own selfishness and Horschel trying to push another player across the finish line. The runner-up from Royal Troon is already playing some good golf, finishing T-7 last week, and while the outright price (+4500) feels too short, it’s hard to envision him being too far off the pace.

Aggressive: Taylor Moore (+275)

I love the idea of playing multiple top-20s at plus-money in a 70-man field, which essentially just equates to finishing inside the top 29th percentile. Moore was T-5 here last year, and he’s a solid ball-striker, especially in the wind. I’d add the likes of Ben Griffin and Stephan Jaeger to this list, as well, hoping that enough of these top-20 plays come through to turn a nice ROI.

FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Bets

Alex Noren (+5500)

I’ll eschew the conservative/aggressive theme in favor of a couple of guys in the same tier for FRL plays. Noren is a guy we’ve loved to back for Thursday investments this year. He ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in R1 scoring average at 68.47, which is a full stroke less than his baseline average for all four rounds. On a course that favors ball-strikers who keep it in play, Noren makes a ton of sense – and could cash top-10/20 full-tourney tickets, as well.

Keegan Bradley (+5500)

For as much as I love Bradley’s game, I’m a little hesitant to invest in the U.S. Ryder Cup captain for full tournaments right now, considering he’s got so many other things on his mind so soon after being named to the role. That said, he can still go low on any given day. He’s posted opening-round scores of 70 or better in each of his last five non-major starts. He’ll likely need to go lower than the 68 and 67 he’s posted on the last two Thursdays in Memphis, but that’s at least a nice trend.