Masters 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Finally, it’s Masters week, one of the biggest and best weeks of the year.

This will be the first major that is considered a designated event, and plenty of other big storylines to follow. There are 18 LIV players teeing it up, Rory McIlroy is going for the career grand slam, plenty of top players are in peak form, and oh yeah, Tiger Woods is in the field.

Augusta National is one of the most famous courses in the entire world, and many fans are very familiar with the layout and certain holes. 

The fairways are some of the widest on the PGA Tour, but it’s primarily a second-shot course. And those second shots vary. While there are some short holes, the majority of them are longer, so players will be hitting longer irons into greens. And once they get to the greens, they will be faced with some of the quickest and trickiest greens they will face all year.

It is imperative for players to take advantage of the four par-5s as, historically, they play as some of the easiest holes on the course.

Usually, length isn’t needed at Augusta National, but with rain in the forecast almost every day this week, it could be more useful than in an average year.

When it comes to the winners of late, they have been the best players in the game. The last 11 winners were ranked in the top 18 of the Official World Golf Rankings entering the tournament. 

Additionally, course history plays more of a factor than at other PGA Tour venues. Thirteen of the last 14 Masters winners had at least a top-30 finish prior to winning.

(Here are 11 players who could win based on those trends.)

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have the best odds to win at +700 as of April 3.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

Masters Predictions

Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are predicted to win the Masters with a 12.5% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Jon Rahm has the next best odds to win with a 10% implied probability. He is followed by Jordan Spieth at 5.26%.

Masters Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +700 Odds to Win

McIlroy enters the week following a strong showing at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, where he debuted some new equipment. There is a bit of pressure on him, as he’s once again looking to close the career Grand Slam.

He has top-10 finishes in seven of the past nine years at Augusta National, including his career-best finish a year ago when he finished solo second.

Jordan Spieth +1800 Odds to Win

No matter what form Spieth is in entering the week, he always seems to find it at the Masters. He has top-three finishes in five of his last nine starts at this event, including winning in 2015. He missed the cut a year ago, so he could have some extra motivation this week.

Spieth is playing solid of late, as he has three top-six finishes in his last six starts.

Masters Sleepers

Min Woo Lee +6600 Odds to Win

Lee is having a heck of a season. On the DP World Tour, he has seven straight top-15 finishes. He also proved he can do it on the PGA Tour, as he was in the final group on Sunday at the Players Championship, playing alongside Scheffler.

This is his second Masters appearance after finishing T-15 last year.

Keith Mitchell +10000 Odds to Win

Mitchell went to Georgia and lives in Sea Island, Georgia, so he’s familiar with the area and will likely have plenty of hometown support. He’s made only one Masters appearance, a T-43 in 2019, but he shot a 69 in the final round.

The 31-year-old is having one of his best seasons yet, with five top-25 finishes in 13 starts.

Masters Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Rory McIlroy Outright Win +700
• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +1800
• Tony Finau Outright Win +2500
• Cameron Young Outright Win +3000
• Will Zalatoris Outright Win +3300
• Will Zalatoris Top-10 Finish +275
• Brooks Kopeka Top-10 Finish +275
• Min Woo Lee Top-20 Finish +150

My card is a bit bigger than usual, given it is the Masters. For the outright winners, it’s about the favorites, as it just doesn’t seem likely a long shot will be able to win. I also relied on my Fantasy National model, as McIlroy was No. 1.

The prop bets were about value. Zalatoris has struggled his last few weeks, but he’s had a ton of success at Augusta National, and this could be a week for him to return to form. Kopeka seems to play better when he has something to motivate him, and he could use being a member of LIV as a positive for him.

Lastly, Lee is one of the more underrated players in the field, and being plus money after finishing T-15 last year seems like a steal.

Here is the top-10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Jon Rahm
4. Xander Schauffele
5. Cameron Smith
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Tony Finau
8. Jason Day
9. Collin Morikawa
10. Talor Gooch