Masters Predictions, Odds: Live Betting Targets, Fades

The first round of the 2024 Masters has (nearly) concluded with nine groups still to close out their opening round. 

Currently, Bryson DeChambeau finds himself atop the leaderboard, with tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler trailing by only a shot. 

However, I’m here to focus on the live betting opportunities for the rounds ahead. 

Below, bettors can find one player that could expect some positive regression and one that could expect a dip in form. 

Masters odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Masters Predictions – Live Betting Target

Tony Finau (+6600 Live Outright Odds)

I question if Finau can win the tournament, but he experienced some really bad luck in the first round. 

Finau, who ranked fourth in my pre-tournament mixed condition model, shot an opening round 71 to sit six shots off the pace. 

According to datagolf.com, Finau currently leads the field in SG: Ball Striking, while ranking fourth in greens in regulation percentage and sixth in SG: T2G. 

The problem? He ranked 77th in SG: Putting. 

Although that’s relatively normal for Finau – he entered the week 83rd in three-putt avoidance on “fast” or “lightning” greens since last year – the ball striking is encouraging. 

If Finau can keep up those positive ball striking numbers, I’d expect a rise up the leaderboard from the American. 

Don’t forget, too, that Finau has yet to miss a cut at Augusta National and has three top-10’s in five April Masters. 

As a result, consider a live top-10 ticket on Finau to continue his strong form at Augusta. 

Masters Predictions – Live Betting Fade

Cameron Davis (+10000 Live Outright Odds)

Davis, who shot -3 in his opening round, is an interesting case study in terms of his underlying metrics. 

His ball striking was decent – 29th in SG: BS, 16th in SG: T2G and 27th in SG: APP. 

However, he currently sits 56th in the field in greens in regulation percentage and 48th in SG: OTT. 

Accordingly, it should come as no surprise Davis ranks 14th and ninth, respectively, in SG: ARG and SG: Putting. 

My model wasn’t particularly high on Davis entering the tournament. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranked 80th in SG: T2G, 64th in SG: APP and 72nd in GIRs gained. 

Additionally, he finished 46th in his Masters debut – this marked his first round of 72 or better at ANGC – and sits 38th in Par 5 Efficiency this season. 

Also worth noting – Davis finished outside the top-40 at both Riviera and Kapalua this season, two correlative courses to Augusta National. 

Davis also struggles on fast greens. Since last season, he’s 80th in three-putt avoidance on “fast” or “lightning” surfaces. 

As a result, I’d consider fading Davis in subsequent round head-to-head matchups or taking “no” prices in live derivative markets.