Masters Prop Bets: Finishing Position, Top LIV, Top Amateur, Special Bets

AUGUSTA, Ga. – The average pre-tournament odds for Masters champions over the past decade was just slightly longer than 24/1. Over the past six years, that number shortened to 18/1. And in the past three years, it’s a mere 10/1.

Moral of the story: If you’re simply hoping to hit an outright longshot at the year’s first major championship, you’re probably doing it wrong.

Look, I love a good triple-digit price as much as – OK, probably way more than – anyone else, but I’m not just going to fire on big numbers this week, knowing that the eventual winner is likely coming from somewhere near the top of the board.

As a result, my Masters outright plays are admittedly chalky.

Unlike regular PGA Tour events, I’m looking to diversify my investments not with longshots, but instead by finding edges in different markets, some of which aren’t even available on a weekly basis.

Let’s get right to ‘em…

MATCHUPS

Corey Conners (-110) over Min Woo Lee

Most of my betting thoughts for the Masters each year are predicated on two traditional ideas about success here: 1) You have to bring form to Augusta, because it’s hard to find it once you’re here; and 2) This is a second-shot golf course, so weigh iron play more heavily than anything else. Min Woo might own better short-term form in this matchup, having won his most recent start in Houston, but Conners seems like he’s ramping up toward something special, with three top-10s in his last five starts and five top-25s in all of ‘em.

More importantly, the Canadian is more than 50 spots higher on the SG: Approach ranking, with some of his better performances coming in those recent high finishes. 

Shane Lowry (-110) over Tommy Fleetwood

Same idea here, really. It’s been well established that Fleetwood has struggled to win on U.S. soil, but Lowry’s similar travails have essentially rendered him Collin Morikawa Lite. Since winning The Open in 2019, his only individual victory came at the 2022 BMW PGA Championship. (He also won last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Rory McIlroy.)

Even so, his performance has shown an extremely high floor, with top-20s in 13 of his last 15 starts. I’m not convinced that Fleetwood is ready to come anywhere close to last year’s T-3 result, as he seemed to take a step backward in San Antonio last weekend. I’ll have plenty of Lowry investments this week, and this one is one of my favorites. 

GROUPS

Group D: Robert MacIntyre (+350) over Russell Henley, Min Woo Lee, Cam Smith and Tyrrell Hatton

To be completely honest, my biggest issue in trying to handicap the field this week has been the process of elimination. There are very few players, at least in the top half of the field, whom I want to completely fade. Obviously, that creates a bigger player pool from which to choose. That said, I don’t have a ton of interest in Lee, Smith or Hatton this week.

They’re all extremely talented players and Smith, especially, has enjoyed success on this course. Eliminating them from this group, though, leaves some leverage with the other two. I like Henley’s game, but I’m worried the nerves will get him if he gets anywhere close to the lead. That leaves Bobby Mac, who’s shown a propensity for playing well in big events, with more top-10s than MCs in his young career so far. 

Group H: Denny McCarthy (+350) over Justin Rose, Davis Thompson, Cameron Young and Sahith Theegala

There’s group betting at weekly PGA Tour events, but it doesn’t go eight spots deep. Perhaps that’s what we need to find some value, though. I can find a little something I don’t love about Rose, Thompson, Young and Theegala (alright, a lot of something about Young), but this is a play on McCarthy’s strengths – namely, iron play and putting. He finished T-45 in his lone previous Masters start last year, but I’m a firm believer that McCarthy is improved at a steady rate. In a group where nobody else really wows me, I like him at this number.

FINISHING POSITIONS

Billy Horschel Top-40 (+110)

Laurie Canter Top-40 (+138)

I’ve already written up my favorite top-5/10/20 plays in the initial preview, but I’ll add to it here with some smart plus-money top-40 plays. To cash these, players will just have to finish inside the top 41.7% of the field this week, which is very doable for both of these guys.

TOP PLAYER

Top Debutant: Taylor Pendrith (+700)

I love this market, because we can actually find some value, as Maverick McNealy owns the shortest odds at +650. I’ll take the big-hitting Pendrith here, who comes into the week with some form. If you want to increase your chances, adding Aaron Rai (+700) and/or Laurie Canter (+1100) would also make some sense.

Top LIV: Jon Rahm (+350)

I’ll admit that it’s very difficult to handicap the LIV players after just five events on that schedule this year, but I have a hard time believing that Rahm won’t show up with a few chips on his shoulders, ready to prove that he’s not done playing golf like one of the world’s best. If you want a flier in this market, check out Sergio Garcia (+1200), who’s been quietly playing some nice golf on LIV.

Top Amateur: Jose Luis Ballester (+188)

The reining U.S. Amateur champion, Ballester is ranked sixth in the current World Amateur Golf Ranking. That’s easily ahead of Evan Beck (18), Justin Hastings (24), Hiroshi Tai (47) and Noah Kent (156). Without some of the game’s best amateurs here – Luke Clanton, Jackson Koivun and Ben James all failed to qualify – this one feels like Ballester’s for the taking, as his number could/should be closer to even-money.

Top Asian: Hideki Matsuyama (+140)

There aren’t many markets where a Matsuyama play garners much interest from me this week, but I love this one, as Sungjae Im and Tom Kim have been out of form, and Byeong Hun An, Kevin Yu and Hiroshi Tai are clearly a class below the 2021 champion.

MAKE/MISS CUT

Cameron Young to miss cut (+120)

I don’t mean to pick on Young, who did finish T-18 in San Antonio last week, but he’s missed the cut in half of his 10 starts this year and has five MCs in 14 career major starts – most of which occurred when he was playing better golf.

Only the top-50 and ties will make the cut this week, but with 96 players in the field, there are going to be some big names going home, so it pays to scan through the prices and find some plus-money numbers. If you want to go bigger, I don’t mind taking a chance that Viktor Hovland’s (+210) victory was a one-and-done. 

Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Robert MacIntyre to make cut (+105)

I know I wrote above that I was fading Fleetwood against Lowry, but the dude is still going to make cut this week. I’ve already written that I like Lowry and Mac, so bundling the three of them together as a plus-money cut-maker feels like a winner.

SPECIAL BETS

Hole-in-one at No. 6 (+1200)

This week marks the 89th edition of the Masters. In the previous 88, there’s been one hole-in-one at No. 4, six at No. 6, three at No. 12 and 24 on No. 16. Based on these numbers, the probability for a hole-in-one on each of these holes is 1.1% for No. 4, 6.8% at No. 6, 3.4% at No. 12 and 27.3% at No. 16.

The odds for each hole to have a hole-in-one are +1400 at No. 4, +1200 at No. 6, +1400 at No. 12 and +100 at No. 16. That means the implied probability is 6.7% at No. 4, 7.7% at No. 6, 6.7% at No. 12 and 50% at No. 16. The differential between the real and implied probabilities for each hole are -5.6% at No. 4, -0.9% at No. 6, -3.3% at No. 12 and -22.7% at No. 16.

What all of this tells us is that there’s no edge to ever playing a hole-in-one prop at these prices (surprise, surprise!), but if you absolutely feel like you must, then your value for the money is to hope for one at No. 6.