- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- Gooners captured a 4-0 win in an earlier meeting this season, but scored two penalties.
- Why Bournemouth are worth a shot on the moneyline at the Emirates.
As they continue their quest to dethrone Manchester City and win the title, Arsenal welcome Bournemouth to the Emirates on Saturday.ย
Both teams notched wins in their last fixture. Arsenal jumped out to an early 3-0 lead over Tottenham but ultimately won 3-2.ย
As for Bournemouth, it was easy pickings for the Cherries at home against Brighton in a 3-0 win.ย
When these sides last met, Arsenal drubbed Bournemouth 4-0 but scored only twice from open play.ย
Hereโs a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturdayโs fixture.ย
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
- Arsenal Moneyline: -500
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +1165
- Draw Moneyline: +625
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth Moneyline (+1150) | Bournemouth Spread (+2.5, -185)
Itโs a high price to lay with Bournemouth in terms of the spread, but history suggests theyโre live to cover and win.ย
Beginning with the spread, Bournemouth matches a historically profitable betting system.ย
Since 2012-13, underdogs off a win facing a favorite off a win 63.9% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The underdog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
- The underdogโs game number is between 14 and 37
Just over the last three seasons, those underdogs are 33-16-2 ATS.ย
In terms of the underlying metrics, there arenโt 2.5 goals separating these sides.ย
This season, Arsenal holds a +1.07 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes, while Bournemouth are sitting on a +0.07 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.ย
That brings me to the adventurous bet: Bournemouthโs moneyline.ย
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs in game 18-38 that stayed between -4 and 0 goals in the last meeting are 77-192 SU for a 47.7% ROI, assuming both teams won their last game.ย
Over the last two seasons, those underdogs are 12-23 SU for a 41.2% return on investment.ย
Thereโs another system suggesting Arsenal will struggle to win this game.ย
Over the same timeframe, favorites off a win that allowed at least two goals are only 128-195 SU in their next game. Even as a favorite, theyโre only 109-86 SU.ย
Just this season, those favorites are 11-12 SU, so Bournemouth are absolutely worth a flier at high odds.ย
Arsenal Formย
April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W
April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W
April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W
April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L
April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L
Bournemouth Form
April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W
April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D
April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Southampton | Manchester United | Sep. 14 | 7:30 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Ipswich Town | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
Crystal Palace | Leicester City | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
Fulham | West Ham United | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Liverpool | Nottingham Forest | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Anfield |
Manchester City | Brentford | Sep. 14 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Aston Villa | Everton | Sep. 14 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
Bournemouth | Chelsea | Sep. 14 | 3:30 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
Tottenham | Arsenal | Sep. 15 | 9 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Wolves | Newcastle United | Sep. 15 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 9 | 7 |
Arsenal | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-1-0 | 7 | 4 |
Newcastle United | 2-1-0 | 7 | 2 |
Brentford | 2-0-1 | 6 | 1 |
Aston Villa | 2-0-1 | 6 | 0 |
Bournemouth | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-1-1 | 4 | 3 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | 5 | 1 |
Chelsea | 1-1-1 | 4 | 2 |
Fulham | 1-1-1 | 4 | 0 |
West Ham United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -1 |
Manchester United | 1-0-2 | 3 | -3 |
Leicester City | 0-1-2 | 1 | -2 |
Crystal Palace | 0-1-2 | 1 | -3 |
Ipswich Town | 0-1-2 | 1 | -5 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-2 | 1 | -6 |
Southampton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -4 |
Everton | 0-0-3 | 0 | -8 |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Aston Villa | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Bournemouth | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Brentford | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Chelsea | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Crystal Palace | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Everton | 0-3-0 | .000 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Fulham | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
Ipswich Town | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Leicester City | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Liverpool | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester City | 3-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
Manchester United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Newcastle United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 0-1-0 | .000 |
Nottingham Forest | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Southampton | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
West Ham United | 1-2-0 | .333 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-0-0 | 1.000 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-1-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
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