Arsenal vs. Bournemouth Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Bournemouth's Dominic Solanke, right, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Bournemouth at the Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023.
(Jon Super/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 03, 2024, 2:56 PM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
  • Gooners captured a 4-0 win in an earlier meeting this season, but scored two penalties.
  • Why Bournemouth are worth a shot on the moneyline at the Emirates.

As they continue their quest to dethrone Manchester City and win the title, Arsenal welcome Bournemouth to the Emirates on Saturday. 

Both teams notched wins in their last fixture. Arsenal jumped out to an early 3-0 lead over Tottenham but ultimately won 3-2. 

As for Bournemouth, it was easy pickings for the Cherries at home against Brighton in a 3-0 win. 

When these sides last met, Arsenal drubbed Bournemouth 4-0 but scored only twice from open play. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture. 

EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -500
  • Bournemouth Moneyline: +1165
  • Draw Moneyline: +625
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)

EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth

Bournemouth Moneyline (+1150) | Bournemouth Spread (+2.5, -185)

It’s a high price to lay with Bournemouth in terms of the spread, but history suggests they’re live to cover and win. 

Beginning with the spread, Bournemouth matches a historically profitable betting system. 

Since 2012-13, underdogs off a win facing a favorite off a win 63.9% ATS, assuming two factors:

  • The underdog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
  • The underdog’s game number is between 14 and 37

Just over the last three seasons, those underdogs are 33-16-2 ATS. 

In terms of the underlying metrics, there aren’t 2.5 goals separating these sides. 

This season, Arsenal holds a +1.07 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes, while Bournemouth are sitting on a +0.07 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per 

That brings me to the adventurous bet: Bournemouth’s moneyline. 

Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs in game 18-38 that stayed between -4 and 0 goals in the last meeting are 77-192 SU for a 47.7% ROI, assuming both teams won their last game. 

Over the last two seasons, those underdogs are 12-23 SU for a 41.2% return on investment. 

There’s another system suggesting Arsenal will struggle to win this game. 

Over the same timeframe, favorites off a win that allowed at least two goals are only 128-195 SU in their next game. Even as a favorite, they’re only 109-86 SU. 

Just this season, those favorites are 11-12 SU, so Bournemouth are absolutely worth a flier at high odds. 

Arsenal Form 

April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W

April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W

April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W

April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L

April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L

Bournemouth Form

April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W

April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W

April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L

April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D

April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.