- Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Bournemouth.
- Gooners captured a 4-0 win in an earlier meeting this season, but scored two penalties.
- Why Bournemouth are worth a shot on the moneyline at the Emirates.
As they continue their quest to dethrone Manchester City and win the title, Arsenal welcome Bournemouth to the Emirates on Saturday.
Both teams notched wins in their last fixture. Arsenal jumped out to an early 3-0 lead over Tottenham but ultimately won 3-2.
As for Bournemouth, it was easy pickings for the Cherries at home against Brighton in a 3-0 win.
When these sides last met, Arsenal drubbed Bournemouth 4-0 but scored only twice from open play.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
- Arsenal Moneyline: -500
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +1165
- Draw Moneyline: +625
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-115)
EPL Prediction – Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth Moneyline (+1150) | Bournemouth Spread (+2.5, -185)
It’s a high price to lay with Bournemouth in terms of the spread, but history suggests they’re live to cover and win.
Beginning with the spread, Bournemouth matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012-13, underdogs off a win facing a favorite off a win 63.9% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The underdog lost the previous head-to-head meeting
- The underdog’s game number is between 14 and 37
Just over the last three seasons, those underdogs are 33-16-2 ATS.
In terms of the underlying metrics, there aren’t 2.5 goals separating these sides.
This season, Arsenal holds a +1.07 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes, while Bournemouth are sitting on a +0.07 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
That brings me to the adventurous bet: Bournemouth’s moneyline.
Since the 2012-13 season, underdogs in game 18-38 that stayed between -4 and 0 goals in the last meeting are 77-192 SU for a 47.7% ROI, assuming both teams won their last game.
Over the last two seasons, those underdogs are 12-23 SU for a 41.2% return on investment.
There’s another system suggesting Arsenal will struggle to win this game.
Over the same timeframe, favorites off a win that allowed at least two goals are only 128-195 SU in their next game. Even as a favorite, they’re only 109-86 SU.
Just this season, those favorites are 11-12 SU, so Bournemouth are absolutely worth a flier at high odds.
Arsenal Form
April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W
April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W
April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W
April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L
April 14 vs. Aston Villa: 0-2, L
Bournemouth Form
April 28 vs. Brighton: 3-0, W
April 24 at Wolves: 1-0, W
April 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
April 13 vs. Manchester United: 2-2, D
April 6 at Luton Town: 1-2, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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- Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
- Liverpool vs. Tottenham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview
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