- Ipswich Town is predicted to be a +1.5-goal underdog against Liverpool.
- Premier League newcomers Ipswich struggled defensively vs. top-flight teams last year.
- I predict the most likely outcome for Saturday’s match is a high-scoring game.
To begin their debut campaign in the Premier League, Ipswich Town welcome Liverpool to Portman Road.
These sides carry opposite objectives for 2024. Ipswich Town are hoping to survive as one the favorites in the Premier League relegation odds.
Liverpool, under new manager Arne Slot, are the third choice in the Premier League title odds and are seeking their first title since 2019-20.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
Ipswich Town vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
- Ipswich Town Moneyline: +650
- Liverpool Moneyline: -275
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-145), No (+105)
Ipswich Town vs. Liverpool Prediction: Total Goals
Based on Ipswich Town’s struggles defensively vs. Premier League teams last season, my prediction for Saturday’s fixture is over 3.5 goals (+105).
Ipswich played two games against Premier League teams in last year’s EFL Cup: Wolves and Fulham, both at home.
Each team managed to score at least two goals against Ipswich while generating 2.11 post-shot expected goals per 90, per fotmob.com.
Now they face a potent Liverpool attack.
Last year, the Reds ranked second in psxG per 90, whereas Fulham and Wolves ranked 10th and 16th, respectively.
Against the three relegated sides — Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield — Liverpool created 2.3 expected goals per 90 and 2.75 psxG per 90.
In those six games, half of them cleared 3.5 goals.
Liverpool simultaneously struggled defensively, even against the league’s worst sides.
In those six matches against promoted teams, the Reds conceded at least one goal four times.
Last year, they managed only 10 clean sheets in 38 matches and surrendered 1.48 expected goals per 90 away from home.
In those 19 road matches, the Reds kept only four clean sheets.
As a result, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to back Ipswich to bag a goal at home to help send this match over the total.
Ipswich Town Record, Last 4 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Nice: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Hoffenheim: 1-0, W (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Dusseldorf: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 20 vs. Shakhtar Donetsk: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Liverpool Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 11 vs. Las Palmas: 0-0, D (Friendly)
- Aug. 11 vs. Sevilla: 4-1, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 vs. Manchester United: 3-0, W (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Arsenal: 2-1, W (Friendly)
- July 26 vs. Real Betis: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Ipswich Town odds and Liverpool odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
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