Super Bowl Odds 2024: Futures Betting for Next Year’s NFL Champion

Minutes after the Chiefs hoisted the Lombardi Trophy as winners of Super Bowl LVIII, the BetMGM online sportsbook posted odds for next season’s Super Bowl market.

Bettors who want to get involved in the early Super Bowl odds market can stake a position now.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 2024

NFL Super Bowl Odds: Chiefs Command Market Respect

The Chiefs may have won Super Bowl LVIII, but it was the 49ers who were priced as the favorites in the opening weeks of the 2024 offseason.

For a little while, anyway.

Following the free agency period and the 2024 NFL Draft, it’s the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs who are sitting atop the Super Bowl odds board at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Kansas City is +550; San Francisco is +600. A Chiefs vs. 49ers rematch is +1200. 

One day before the draft, Kansas City was +650. The 49ers were static at +600. 

The move is most likely a market-driven adjustment. Kansas City has attracted about one-sixth of all offseason tickets so far, alongside more than 23% of all handle. San Francisco, by contrast, has drawn just 5.6% of tickets and 4.5% of all handle. 

Since the start of free agency, Kansas City has cleared more than $20 million in cap room by converting some of Patrick Mahomes’ contract into signing bonus. They’ve also signed Chris Jones to a new five-year deal, restructured Travis Kelce’s contract, and drafted former Texas Longhorn Xavier Worthy at the end of the first round. 

The 49ers haven’t had nearly as dramatic an offseason, but the 49ers do have the benefit of Brock Purdy’s rookie contract. The third-year player will make $985,000 this year, less than one-half of 1% of the 49ers’ overall cap space. 

That leaves a lot of leftover money in the budget for playmakers at every level of the field.

Super Bowl Odds Following NFL Free Agency, Draft

The NFL free agency period reshuffles the rosters and moves key players to new teams. As veteran handicappers know, some of these moves can have big implications for odds and betting targets. Sometimes both.

At BetMGM, the biggest news of the 2024 cycle was Russell Wilson’s move to the Steelers. 

Pittsburgh last won a playoff game at the end of the 2016 season. Since then, the Steelers have used a mashup of ineffective quarterbacks to lead the offense – Landry Jones, Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and late-30s Ben Roethlisberger. In four of the past five years, PFF had graded Pittsburgh’s offense as 27th or worse.

Yet despite the underwhelming offensive firepower, the Steelers have remained competitive (and made four playoff appearances) because the defense remains elite. Forget about a great offense – if the Steelers could improve its offense to be league average, it could potentially be a Super Bowl contender.

That’s where some new blood at quarterback enters the mix. Pittsburgh acquired both the Russell Wilson contract and the Justin Fields contract this offseason. Because of how contracts work, Denver must continue paying Wilson’s salary, giving Pittsburgh what is essentially a free starting quarterback. That’s a powerful economic advantage in the era of quarterback mega-contracts.

Wilson is no longer the guy who scrambled his way to two Super Bowls in the 2010s. But the acquisition of Wilson and Fields has nonetheless inspired many bettors to believe that Pittsburgh has finally found the league-average quarterback that it needs to contend at the top of the AFC. The Steelers’ ticket volume has picked up tremendously at BetMGM over the last month.

NFL Odds 2024: Another AFC Arms Race

Remember last year, when the collective online sports betting universe marveled at the depth of one particular conference? Prepare for another offseason of AFC anticipation.

You think the Chargers had high hopes in 2023? Wait until Jim Harbaugh gets ahold of Justin Herbert.

Aaron Rodgers returns to the Jets … let’s see if the 40-year-old can play a whole quarter of football this year. (That’s assuming he’s not on the campaign trail.)

Even the Chiefs have said the Baltimore defense might be the best unit in football right now. (I doubt Lamar is going anywhere after securing his new contract, either.) 

A healthy Bills team. Sean Payton’s sophomore season in Denver. An increasingly dangerous Texans team. Did I mention Joe Burrow is going to be playing again?

The AFC is a crazy arms race loaded with quarterbacks, and it seems like three-quarters of the entire conference could have a realistic chance to play for a Super Bowl. So If you’re shopping for sleepers, don’t be afraid of the longshots. Next season’s champion could come from nearly anywhere.