Falcons Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Falcons win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The Falcons suffered a disappointing 2024 season. Despite signing a new quarterback who led a revamped offense, the Falcons lost six of their final eight to finish the season 8-9. 

After only one season of Kirk Cousins, Atlanta hands the keys to Michael Penix Jr., who started the final three games of the 2024 season. Year over year, Atlanta’s win total dropped two wins. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Atlanta’s 2025 win total and my Falcons win total prediction. 

Falcons Win Total Odds

The Falcons’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

The odds for Atlanta to win at least eight games is -145, an implied probability of 59.2%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with seven or fewer wins is +120, an implied probability of 45.5%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 6.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 5.5 Wins

Falcons Win Total Prediction 2025

Atlanta Falcons Under 7.5 Wins (+120)

Based on the Falcons’ level of defensive competition in 2025 and a more difficult schedule for the defense, I predict the Falcons finish Under 7.5 Wins (+120). 

BET: Falcons Over 7.5 Wins @ -145

BET: Panthers Under 7.5 Wins @ +120  

Much like every other team in the NFC South, Atlanta presents a difficult handicapping challenge. 

The offense clearly passed the eye test under Penix. Atlanta scored 96 points in its final three games, which was more than the five preceding games.

What should not go ignored about those contests is the level of competition. All of Atlanta’s final three games came against teams 23rd or worse in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Atlanta finished the season 14th in offensive DVOA, including fifth in rush offense. 

Even more impressive is that a majority of their games came against teams 15th or better in rush defense DVOA. 

Historically, a team’s offensive record usually proves more stable year over year than defense, which is where Atlanta struggled. 

The Falcons finished 29th in defensive DVOA despite facing the ninth-easiest set of opposing defenses. 

In seven games against teams 15th or better in defensive DVOA, Atlanta finished 1-6. Otherwise, they finished 7-3. 

The key to Atlanta’s success next season is whether they maintain a strong offense. Save for center Drew Dahlman – a big loss on the line – all key personnel return. 

But the issue with taking a position on the Falcons is that predicting the difficulty of its offensive schedule is very difficult, given that teams change rankings drastically. 

If we’re going strictly by 2024 defensive DVOA ratings, the Falcons face eight games against teams that ranked 16th or better. Only three of those games come at home, though. 

Defensively, Atlanta’s schedule takes a more difficult turn in 2025. 

As referenced earlier, Atlanta ranked as one of the worst defenses against a pretty easy schedule in 2024. 

For 2025, they’ll have to improve against a more difficult slate. Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, the Falcons face the 16th-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

What’s overly concerning about the Falcons is that their defense DVOA ratings in the last four years are 31st, 31st, 24th and 29th. Even in 2020, they only placed 19th. 

For Atlanta to clear its win total, a lot has to go wrong for their opponents’ offenses. For those reasons, I’m more inclined to bet under 7.5 wins.

Most Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for most regular-season wins is 14; they went 14-2 in 1998 en route to a loss in Super Bowl XXXIII.

They’re one of 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Falcons History

The Falcons’ franchise record for fewest regular-season wins is one; they went 1-12-1 in 1967, the team’s second year of existence.

They won only two games a year later in 1968.