- The Illinois is a -19.5 point favorite vs. Purdue
- The Purdue vs. Illinois Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Purdue Boilermakers (1-4) visit Memorial Stadium to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1) on Oct. 12 in Champaign, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-110).
The Purdue vs. Illinois Over/Under is 49.5 total points.
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Purdue vs. Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Purdue | +19.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +750 |
| Illinois | -19.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -1200 |
Purdue vs Illinois Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Illinois will win this game with 91.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Purdue and Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Purdue vs Illinois Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Illinois will cover the spread with 54.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Purdue Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Purdue has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+1.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Purdue has hit the Game Total Under in 1 of their last 2 away games (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Illinois has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Illinois have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 30% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Purdue players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Purdue Player Prop Bets Today
- Devin Mockobee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Hudson Card has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.15 Units / 102% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Luke Altmyer has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.65 Units / 165% ROI)
- Kaden Feagin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Luke Altmyer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Pat Bryant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Purdue Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Purdue is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).
- Purdue is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -65.57% ROI
- Purdue is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- Purdue is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Illinois is 4-0 against the spread this college football season (+4 Units / 72.73% ROI).
- Illinois is 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 26.06% ROI
- Illinois is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Illinois is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Purdue: Keys to the Game vs. Illinois
Purdue is winless (0-9) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .390
Purdue is 5-8 (.385) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688
Purdue is winless (0-9) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443
Purdue is 3-12 (.200) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504
Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Purdue
Illinois is 10-1 (.909) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .760
Illinois is 10-4 (.714) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .593
Illinois is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 20th-best in FBS; Average: .646
Illinois is 8-2 (.800) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .656
Matchup Notes for Purdue vs. Illinois
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 10.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Purdue’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue has averaged just 9.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue Offensive Stats & Trends
Purdue RBs have averaged 11.6 Yards per Carry (291 yards/25 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3
Purdue RBs have averaged 10.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (291 yards / 28 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
Purdue’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue has averaged just 9.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue’s WRs has averaged just 10.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten WRs. Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.6 RAC since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 10.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Illinois’s WRs has 265 receptions in 17 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten WRs. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.
Illinois has 352 receptions in 17 games (20.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.
Illinois has 352 receptions in 17 games (20.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten skill players. Purdue’s defense has allowed just 15.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Purdue Boilermakers Defensive Stats & Trends
Purdue has not forced a fumble (217 carries) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 43.3
Purdue has allowed 14.3 yards per completion (3,873 yards/271 completions) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.9
Purdue has allowed 16 rushing TDs this season– most in the Big Ten
Purdue has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 69 of 480 attempts (14%) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 8%
Purdue has allowed 1,196 rushing yards this season– most in the Big Ten
Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Stats & Trends
Illinois has not recorded a sack (18 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14.7
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 19 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 14%.
Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 17 of 165 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16%.
Illinois has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 19 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Illinois has allowed 21 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 5th-most among Power Conference Teams
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