Western Michigan vs Wisconsin Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 1

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell reacts during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
(AP Photo/Morry Gash)
  • Wisconsin is a -24.5 point favorite vs. W Michigan
  • Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Total(Over/Under): 56.5 points
  • TV Channel: FS1

The Western Michigan Broncos 0-0 visit Camp Randall Stadium to take on the Wisconsin Badgers 0-0 on Aug. 30 in Madison, WI. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT.

Wisconsin is a betting favorite in Week 1, with the spread sitting at -24.5 (-105).

The Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Western Michigan+24.5 -11556.5 -110+1350
Wisconsin -24.5 -10556.5 -110-3000

Western Michigan vs Wisconsin Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Wisconsin will win this game with 95.0% confidence.

Western Michigan vs Wisconsin Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Michigan will cover the spread with 67.8% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both W Michigan and Wisconsin, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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Western Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record

W Michigan was 7-5 against the spread last college football season (+1.55 Units / 11.74% ROI).

  • Western Michigan was 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -22.04% ROI
  • Western Michigan was 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
  • Western Michigan was 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Wisconsin Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wisconsin is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.6 Units / -4.2% ROI).

  • Wisconsin was 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.75 Units / -13.06% ROI
  • Wisconsin was 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -26.48% ROI
  • Wisconsin was 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.55 Units / 17.89% ROI

Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Wisconsin

Western Michigan is winless (0-6) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .446

Western Michigan was winless (0-4) when their opponent committed less than 60 yards in penalties in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Western Michigan is winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .440

Western Michigan was 1-8 (.111) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards in the 2023 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: .450

Wisconsin: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan

Wisconsin was 4-2 (.667) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team in the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Wisconsin is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2022 season– T-13th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .295

Wisconsin is 9-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2022 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .509

Wisconsin was 7-2 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards in the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: .550

Matchup Notes for Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch last season — 9th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 12.6 RAC last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin’s TEs had just 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-3rd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin had just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 2.0 receiving touchdowns per game last season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 4,322 passing yards in 23 games (just 187.9 YPG) since the 2022 season — 22nd-worst among FBS teams. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 206.6 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s offense has thrown for 4,353 passing yards in 23 games (just 189.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 206.6 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s WRs gained 1,598 yards on 159 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Wisconsin’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 4,322 passing yards in 23 games (just 187.9 YPG) since the 2022 season — 22nd-worst among FBS teams. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 206.6 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s offense has thrown for 4,353 passing yards in 23 games (just 189.3 YPG) since the 2022 season — 21st-worst among FBS offenses. Wisconsin’s defense has allowed just 206.6 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 31st-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan’s WRs gained 1,598 yards on 159 receptions (just 10.1 YPR) last season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Wisconsin’s defense allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception last season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Western Michigan WRs averaged a touchdown every 4.3 receptions (13 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-7th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Western Michigan WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.0 receptions (16 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Wisconsin Offensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 21.4 receptions (278 Rec/13 TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.1

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 2.0

Wisconsin TEs have averaged just 4.3 yards per reception (13 yards/3 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.3

Wisconsin’s RBs averaged just 5.1 yards after the catch last season — 9th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense allowed 12.6 RAC last season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Wisconsin Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 3.7 receptions (26 Rec/7 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Western Michigan Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends

Western Michigan had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.4

Western Michigan had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.8

Western Michigan has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 2 of 43 carries (5%) on 3rd and long since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 17%

Western Michigan had no interceptions and 12 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10.1

Western Michigan has allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (56 completions/117 attempts) in close and late situations since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

Wisconsin Badgers Defensive Stats & Trends

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Wisconsin has forced 10 fumbles on 900 carries (90.0 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2022 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 41.4

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 90 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.6

Wisconsin did not record a sack (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Wisconsin has sacked opposing QBs just once on 90 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16.3


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