- The Braves (74-47) are -160 favorites vs the Astros (77-44)
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (7-8), 2.96 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (7-4), 3.04 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Houston Astros (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-160) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 76-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-57 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -120 | +135 |
| Braves | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 +100 | -160 |
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 63 of his last 109 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 41 games at home (+17.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 107 games (+14.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 51 of his last 71 games (+14.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Braves vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Braves vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -150 |
| Cristian Javier | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 108 games (+25.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 95 games (+21.32 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 88 games (+3.15 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-59 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.93% ROI).
- 76-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 2.4% ROI
- 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -23.99% ROI
- 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.05% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 54% of the time (488/906) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (551/1,457) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 51% (432/852) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (62/245) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Spencer Strider: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (50/121) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (156/388) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 37% (142 SO in 382 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (99 SO in 251 PAs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Astros are 40-6 (.870) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Astros are 39-18 (.684) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Braves are 65-14 (.823) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Braves are 10-2 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 33-24 (.579) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 623 strikeouts in 3,460 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .679 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .557.
Braves hitters are slugging .500 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves hitters are slugging .445 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.84 (516.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.49 (2516.0 IP) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Mauricio Dubón (Astros): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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