Astros vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros are -225 favorites vs the Guardians
  • Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (9-4), 2.79 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Houston Astros (-225) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+180) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 69-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-50 ATS.

Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 -125O 8.5 -105-225
Guardians +1.5 +105U 8.5 -115+180

Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+10.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+9.00 Units / 33% ROI)

Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Myles Straw 0.5 +1350 0.5
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Owen Miller 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Myles Straw 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Owen Miller 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Myles Straw 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Owen Miller 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Framber Valdez 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+22.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 94 games (+20.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 91 games (+11.95 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 86 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 86 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-52 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 3.91% ROI).

  • 69-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 4.19% ROI
  • 38-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.1 Units / -27.46% ROI
  • 65-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.95 Units / 19.3% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI).

  • 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 4.1% ROI
  • 51-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.69% ROI
  • 47-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -7.84% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (239/354) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (81/118) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (203/294) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (158/236) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Gaddis: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Astros are 61-12 (.836) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Astros are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Astros are 37-5 (.881) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Astros are just 3-29 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Guardians are 9-44 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are just 16-48 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Guardians are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Guardians are 9-42 (.176) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Astros hitters have just 606 strikeouts in 3,314 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,019 strikeouts in 10,295 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 736 strikeouts in 3,974 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 521 strikeouts in 2,941 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (1,030 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Guardians hitters have just 739 strikeouts in 3,971 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (461.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Astros pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Guardians pitchers have walked 3 of 132 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 1 of 64 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Kyle Tucker (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.