- The Astros are -225 favorites vs the Guardians
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez (9-4), 2.79 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Houston Astros (-225) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+180) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Astros vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 69-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-50 ATS.
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | -225 |
| Guardians | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | +180 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+10.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jose Urquidy has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+9.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+22.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 94 games (+20.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 91 games (+11.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 88 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 86 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 86 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-52 against the Run Line (+4.85 Units / 3.91% ROI).
- 69-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 4.19% ROI
- 38-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.1 Units / -27.46% ROI
- 65-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +22.95 Units / 19.3% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI).
- 54-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 4.1% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.69% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -7.84% ROI
Framber Valdez: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (239/354) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (81/118) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (203/294) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (158/236) against Framber Valdez in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Gaddis: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are 61-12 (.836) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Astros are 37-5 (.881) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Astros are just 3-29 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 9-44 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are just 16-48 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Guardians are 38-3 (.927) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Guardians are 9-42 (.176) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 606 strikeouts in 3,314 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,019 strikeouts in 10,295 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 736 strikeouts in 3,974 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 521 strikeouts in 2,941 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (1,030 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Guardians hitters have just 739 strikeouts in 3,971 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.73 (461.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Astros pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have walked 3 of 132 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 1 of 64 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Kyle Tucker (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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