- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Astros / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SCHN | MLBN
The Houston Astros (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Astros are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-77 ATS.
Astros vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco 12-6, 2.89 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 2-3, 4.77 ERA
Astros vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -115 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | U 8 -105 | -125 |
Astros vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 away games (+23.40 Units / 123% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 46 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 games (+24.60 Units / 123% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 70 away games (+18.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 101 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 86 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 69 of their last 123 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+16.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 92 of their last 159 games (+13.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 74 games at home (+13.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 79-80 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.95 Units / -4.67% ROI
- 65-89 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.25 Units / -18.55% ROI
- 89-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +17 Units / 9.65% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 82-77 against the Run Line (+7.9 Units / 3.95% ROI).
- 92-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.45 Units / 6.51% ROI
- 69-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.25 Units / -10.97% ROI
- 80-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.05 Units / 2.32% ROI
Guardians vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronel Blanco (HOU) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (77/208) against Ronel Blanco on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 31 of 261 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 23 of 188 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has walked 50 of 428 batters (12%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Cantillo has not allowed a home run in any of the last 19.2 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 87.2.
Joey Cantillo has a strikeout rate of 37% (22 SO in 60 PAs) this month (3 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Joey Cantillo has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to September 9th — Beau Brieske has the longest active streak at 15.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (42/117) against Joey Cantillo this month (3 games) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Astros are just 0-55 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 201-30 (.870) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Guardians are 70-2 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 50-28 (.641) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Guardians are 24-30 (.444) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Guardians are 76-2 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (921/6,021 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (457/11,951) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
The Guardians had an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Guardians are batting just .299 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .206 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians pitchers have walked 8 of 204 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (140/159) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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