Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (99-52) are -140 favorites vs the Orioles (78-71)
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (13-7), 3.95 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (7-5), 3.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Houston Astros (-140) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+115) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Astros vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 99-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 92-55 ATS.

Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +125O 7.5 +100-140
Orioles +1.5 -150U 7.5 -120+115

Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.55 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+9.40 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.70 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 51 games at home (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Orioles vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Anthony Santander 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Austin Hays 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600

Orioles vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Anthony Santander 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Austin Hays 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Cedric Mullins 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Orioles vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Anthony Santander 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Austin Hays 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Cedric Mullins 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Gunnar Henderson 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Orioles vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Urquidy 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
Dean Kremer 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 138 games (+31.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 95 games (+6.65 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.50 Units / 2% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 81-69 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 7.17% ROI).

  • 99-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.2 Units / 5.73% ROI
  • 53-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -41.4 Units / -25.21% ROI
  • 87-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.15 Units / 16.93% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-55 against the Run Line (+26.85 Units / 13.95% ROI).

  • 78-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +28.4 Units / 17.56% ROI
  • 65-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -10.82% ROI
  • 76-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 2.85% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (176/482) against Jose Urquidy this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (91/262) against Jose Urquidy this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has a strikeout rate of just 35% (127 SO in 362 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .549 (124 Total Bases / 226 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — fourth Percentile.

Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 32% (75 SO in 234 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (75/267) against Dean Kremer on non-fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .067 (2 GB hits out of 30 GBs) against Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 99th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 77 of Dean Kremer’s 183 elevated fastballs out of the zone (42%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Astros are 49-29 (.628) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Astros are just 4-38 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Astros are 82-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Astros are 40-14 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Orioles are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 8-63 (.113) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Orioles are 58-1 (.983) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,832 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,492 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .488 (180 PA’s) against LHP this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Orioles are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Orioles hitters have 396 strikeouts in 1,586 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Orioles are batting just .164 against LHP this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (20 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 174 of 2,729 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.