- The Astros (99-52) are -140 favorites vs the Orioles (78-71)
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (13-7), 3.95 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (7-5), 3.33 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (-140) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+115) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Astros vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 99-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 92-55 ATS.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | O 7.5 +100 | -140 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -150 | U 7.5 -120 | +115 |
Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 away games (+9.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.70 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 51 games at home (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
Orioles vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Orioles vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Orioles vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urquidy | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Dean Kremer | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 138 games (+31.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 23 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+7.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 95 games (+6.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.50 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 81-69 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 7.17% ROI).
- 99-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.2 Units / 5.73% ROI
- 53-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -41.4 Units / -25.21% ROI
- 87-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +28.15 Units / 16.93% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-55 against the Run Line (+26.85 Units / 13.95% ROI).
- 78-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +28.4 Units / 17.56% ROI
- 65-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 76-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.65 Units / 2.85% ROI
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (176/482) against Jose Urquidy this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (91/262) against Jose Urquidy this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strikeout rate of just 35% (127 SO in 362 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .549 (124 Total Bases / 226 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — fourth Percentile.
Dean Kremer: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer has a strikeout rate of just 32% (75 SO in 234 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (75/267) against Dean Kremer on non-fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .067 (2 GB hits out of 30 GBs) against Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 77 of Dean Kremer’s 183 elevated fastballs out of the zone (42%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Astros are 49-29 (.628) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Astros are just 4-38 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Astros are 82-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 40-14 (.741) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Orioles are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 8-63 (.113) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Orioles are 58-1 (.983) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,832 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,492 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .488 (180 PA’s) against LHP this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Orioles are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Orioles hitters have 396 strikeouts in 1,586 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles are batting just .164 against LHP this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (20 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 174 of 2,729 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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