Astros vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • The Orioles (79-72) are +135 underdogss vs the Astros (100-53)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (10-9), 2.76 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Austin Voth (5-3), 4.32 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Houston Astros (-165) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+135) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Astros vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 100-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 95-56 ATS.

Astros vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5O 7.5 -105-165
Orioles +1.5U 7.5 -115+135

Astros vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Orioles vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+10.65 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 44 of his last 64 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Kyle Bradish has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 away games (+19.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 82-71 against the Run Line (+11.65 Units / 6.4% ROI).

  • 100-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 5.13% ROI
  • 55-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -40.55 Units / -24.2% ROI
  • 88-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +26.8 Units / 15.8% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 95-56 against the Run Line (+28.25 Units / 14.26% ROI).

  • 79-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +27.55 Units / 16.73% ROI
  • 67-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.65 Units / -10.65% ROI
  • 78-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 2.66% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .093 (51-for-547) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .148 (34-for-230) against Cristian Javier this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (65/239) against Cristian Javier in two-strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (501/971) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Austin Voth: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Austin Voth has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (69 Total Bases / 114 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .356 — 0 Percentile.

Austin Voth has a strikeout rate of just 38% (140 SO in 365 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 7th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (69/226) against Austin Voth since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .386 (44-for-114) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Astros are 50-30 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Astros are 43-5 (.896) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Astros are 82-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Astros are 88-21 (.807) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Orioles are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Orioles are 66-24 (.733) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Orioles are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 32-8 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,832 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,492 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 2,333 strikeouts in 11,971 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles hitters are slugging just .266 against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.

The Orioles are batting just .223 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .239 (184 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .505 (184 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.02 (691.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 32% against Astros pitchers this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (1250.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Orioles pitchers have walked 81 of 1,332 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Orioles vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Jeremy Peña (Astros): Face , Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.