- The Astros (98-51) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (82-66)
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (3-1), 2.33 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (10-9), 4.43 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Houston Astros (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Astros vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 96-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 69-73 ATS.
Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | O 7 +100 | -125 |
| Rays | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -120 | +105 |
Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.55 Units / 59% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games at home (+18.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games at home (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Harold Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)
Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Wander Franco | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Chas McCormick | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 66 away games (+24.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+11.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 78-68 against the Run Line (+10.25 Units / 5.9% ROI).
- 96-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 5.31% ROI
- 51-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.2 Units / -26.39% ROI
- 86-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +29.5 Units / 18.23% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-73 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.31% ROI).
- 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -2.6% ROI
- 64-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -8.27% ROI
- 72-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.15% ROI
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 79% of the time (1,338/1,689) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Lance McCullers’ pitches in the zone (946/1,606) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (855/2,417) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 77% of the time (1,652/2,150) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has walked 18 of 620 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has not walked a batter in his last 31.0 innings pitched — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 36.0.
Corey Kluber has walked 10 of 331 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (166/465) against Corey Kluber this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 80-8 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Astros are 50-23 (.685) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Astros are 48-28 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are 37-11 (.771) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Rays are just 69-9 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 33-8 (.805) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Rays are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,826 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 305 strikeouts in 1,745 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put 48% of their swings in play against LHP this month (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters have just 10 strikeouts in 80 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays are batting just .222 with two outs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Rays hitters have grounded into 159 double plays in 2,109 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Astros pitchers this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 0.96 (74.2 IP) on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 159 of 2,785 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 66 of 1,323 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 951 of 13,637 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 783 of 11,425 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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