Astros vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 21, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (98-51) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (82-66)
  • Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (3-1), 2.33 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (10-9), 4.43 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Houston Astros (-125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+105) on Wednesday, September 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Astros vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 96-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 69-73 ATS.

Astros vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +140O 7 +100-125
Rays +1.5 -165U 7 -120+105

Astros vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.55 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games at home (+18.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Harold Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games at home (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Harold Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)

Rays vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jose Siri 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Wander Franco 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Chas McCormick 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Rays vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jose Siri 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Randy Arozarena 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Wander Franco 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Chas McCormick 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Rays vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Harold Ramirez 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jose Siri 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Randy Arozarena 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Wander Franco 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Chas McCormick 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 66 away games (+24.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+11.60 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 78-68 against the Run Line (+10.25 Units / 5.9% ROI).

  • 96-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 5.31% ROI
  • 51-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.2 Units / -26.39% ROI
  • 86-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +29.5 Units / 18.23% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 69-73 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.31% ROI).

  • 79-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -2.6% ROI
  • 64-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -8.27% ROI
  • 72-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.25 Units / 0.15% ROI

Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 79% of the time (1,338/1,689) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 59% of Lance McCullers’ pitches in the zone (946/1,606) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (855/2,417) against Lance McCullers in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 77% of the time (1,652/2,150) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corey Kluber has walked 18 of 620 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Corey Kluber has not walked a batter in his last 31.0 innings pitched — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 36.0.

Corey Kluber has walked 10 of 331 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (166/465) against Corey Kluber this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Astros are 12-8 (.600) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 80-8 (.909) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Astros are 50-23 (.685) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Astros are 48-28 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Rays are 37-11 (.771) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Rays are just 69-9 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rays are 33-8 (.805) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Rays are 50-8 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

Astros hitters have just 815 strikeouts in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,826 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 305 strikeouts in 1,745 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Rays hitters have put 48% of their swings in play against LHP this month (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Rays hitters have just 10 strikeouts in 80 PA’s (12%) against LHP over the last 14 days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Rays are batting just .222 with two outs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Rays hitters have grounded into 159 double plays in 2,109 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Astros pitchers this month (18 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 0.96 (74.2 IP) on the road this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Rays pitchers have walked 159 of 2,785 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 66 of 1,323 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 951 of 13,637 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 783 of 11,425 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Shane McClanahan (Rays): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.