Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 17, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Blue Jays are -120 favorites vs the Astros
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
  • Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Toronto Blue Jays (-120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+100) on Monday, April 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Blue Jays vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Blue Jays are 10-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 8-8 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 +140O 8 -110-120
Astros +1.5 -165U 8 -110+100

Blue Jays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 68.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.55 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 away games (+8.80 Units / 176% ROI)
  • Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+8.50 Units / 142% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.30 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+11.40 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Singles Over in his last 11 games (+11.10 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.55 Units / 31% ROI)

Astros vs Blue Jays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
George Springer 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Astros vs Blue Jays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 -155 0.5 +115
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -165 0.5 +125
George Springer 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -190 0.5 +145

Astros vs Blue Jays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Abreu 0.5 +175 0.5 -225
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
George Springer 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +190 0.5 -250

Astros vs Blue Jays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gausman 6.5 +105 6.5 -140
Cristian Javier 6.5 +100 6.5 -135
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 68% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.35 Units / 14% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -9.7% ROI).

  • 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 8.65% ROI
  • 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.4 Units / 2.31% ROI
  • 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -11.7% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 8-8 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -5.11% ROI).

  • 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -31.15% ROI
  • 11-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.5 Units / 31.07% ROI
  • 5-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -40% ROI

Kevin Gausman has allowed an OBP of just .024 (41 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.

Kevin Gausman has allowed an OPS of just .049 (41 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .512 — 100th Percentile.

Kevin Gausman has a strike rate of 76% (110/145) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .024 (1-for-41) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .176 — 100th Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cristian Javier has had second base stolen on him 6 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (30/130) against Cristian Javier on non-fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Cristian Javier has struck out 38% (111/289) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.

Cristian Javier has a strike rate of 82% (41/50) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Blue Jays are 43-37 (.538) when underdogs since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Blue Jays are 19-17 (.528) when underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.

The Blue Jays are 38-23 (.623) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.

The Blue Jays are 74-4 (.949) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Astros are 32-17 (.653) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

The Astros are 41-59 (.410) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Astros are 40-29 (.580) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Blue Jays are batting .191 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .331 (5,339 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .559 (3,527 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .506.

The Blue Jays are batting .265 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Astros hitters have just 347 strikeouts in 2,034 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 4,115 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 184 PA’s (14%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 102 of 1,597 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 484 of 6,711 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 10 of 142 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Astros have allowed 3.30 runs per game (287/87) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (764.0 IP) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Astros vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
  • Chas McCormick (Astros): Eye, Day-to-Day
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
  • Chad Green (Blue Jays): Undisclosed, D60
  • Mitchell White (Blue Jays): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.