The Toronto Blue Jays (+115) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on Sunday, March 24, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater, FL.
This season, the Blue Jays are 10-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 13-6 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | +115 |
| Phillies | -135 |
Blue Jays vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Garrett Stubbs has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+11.74 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 41 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+8.78 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 9-9 against the Run Line (+1.24 Units / 0.93% ROI).
- 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.11% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / 7.33% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / -13.96% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 13-6 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 21.78% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.18 Units / -3.89% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -33.27% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 25.84% ROI
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (199 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.4 MPH on the 259 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (17/110) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since the 2022 season (410 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola threw his curveball 36% of the time (205/565) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola had a strike rate of 69% (1,140/1,656) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 91st Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a chase rate of 35% (264/748) against Aaron Nola in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
63% of Aaron Nola’s called strikeouts were outside in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 91st Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays were 34-52 (.395) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Phillies are 10-124 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Blue Jays batted .272 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Blue Jays have a winning percentage of 56% on the road since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies hitters chased 31% of pitches out of the zone against RHP in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters slugged .488 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers had 300 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2023 season — 2nd most in MLB.
Blue Jays pitchers had an ERA of 3.90 (706.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 25th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 901 times in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
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