- The Braves (37-27) are -185 favorites vs the Cubs (23-40)
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 5.66 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (6-2), 3.67 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Atlanta Braves (-185) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+150) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 37-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 31-32 ATS.
Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -185 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +150 |
Braves vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Cubs vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Thompson | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 35-29 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 4.82% ROI).
- 37-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.31% ROI
- 35-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 9.5% ROI
- 26-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -17.81% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 31-32 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -7.72% ROI).
- 23-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -24.03% ROI
- 31-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.73% ROI
- 30-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -5.72% ROI
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (19/77) against Charlie Morton this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (842/1,969) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (28/77) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Charlie Morton had a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (10/25) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (23/122) against Keegan Thompson this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has struck out just 14% (17/117) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.
59% of Keegan Thompson’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 9% (4 SO in 44 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Braves are 31-8 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Braves are 20-14 (.588) at home this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Braves are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Cubs are just 11-24 (.314) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Cubs are just 2-12 (.143) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Cubs are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Cubs are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have 206 extra-base hits out of 468 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .730 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Braves hitters have 248 extra-base hits out of 575 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves hitters have 78 extra-base hits out of 159 total hits (49%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .157 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .371 (56 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Cubs have won just 46% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 263 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Cubs have allowed 8.75 runs per game (105/12) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Cubs vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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