Braves vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:03 AM
  • The Braves (37-27) are -185 favorites vs the Cubs (23-40)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 5.66 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (6-2), 3.67 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Atlanta Braves (-185) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+150) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Braves vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 37-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 31-32 ATS.

Braves vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -110O 8.5 -115-185
Cubs +1.5 -110U 8.5 -105+150

Braves vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 62.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+18.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 52 games (+16.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jason Heyward has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Cubs vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
    Ian Happ 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
    Jason Heyward 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000

    Cubs vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
    Ian Happ 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
    Jason Heyward 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

    Cubs vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Christopher Morel 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Frank Schwindel 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
    Ian Happ 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
    Jason Heyward 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
    Nico Hoerner 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

    Cubs vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Keegan Thompson 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
    Charlie Morton 5.5 -150 5.5 +105
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 38 games (+14.47 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+6.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 35-29 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 4.82% ROI).

    • 37-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.31% ROI
    • 35-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 9.5% ROI
    • 26-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.55 Units / -17.81% ROI

    Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 31-32 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -7.72% ROI).

    • 23-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -24.03% ROI
    • 31-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.73% ROI
    • 30-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -5.72% ROI

    Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (19/77) against Charlie Morton this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

    Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (842/1,969) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

    Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 36% (28/77) against Charlie Morton this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

    Charlie Morton had a first-pitch strike rate of just 40% (10/25) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

    Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (23/122) against Keegan Thompson this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.

    Keegan Thompson has struck out just 14% (17/117) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.

    59% of Keegan Thompson’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

    Keegan Thompson has a strikeout rate of just 9% (4 SO in 44 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.

    Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

    The Braves are 31-8 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

    The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .075.

    The Braves are 20-14 (.588) at home this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .513.

    The Braves are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

    Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

    The Cubs are just 11-24 (.314) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.

    The Cubs are just 2-12 (.143) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

    The Cubs are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

    The Cubs are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

    Braves hitters have 206 extra-base hits out of 468 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Braves hitters are slugging .730 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

    Braves hitters have 248 extra-base hits out of 575 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

    Braves hitters have 78 extra-base hits out of 159 total hits (49%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    Cubs hitters are slugging just .157 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

    Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .371 (56 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .663.

    The Cubs have won just 46% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

    Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 263 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

    Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

    The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

    The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    The Cubs have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    The Cubs have allowed 8.75 runs per game (105/12) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.

    Cubs vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.