Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (69-39) are -150 favorites vs the Braves (64-45)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (6-3), 2.79 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (0-0), 1.80 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Atlanta Braves (+125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-150) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 64-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 59-49 ATS.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -175O 7 -120+125
Mets -1.5 +145U 7 +100-150

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 74.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 97 games (+17.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 66 games (+16.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 66 of his last 97 games (+16.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+13.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 95 games (+12.75 Units / 9% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games at home (+16.80 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+15.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 36 games at home (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 50 games at home (+10.80 Units / 21% ROI)

Mets vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1100 0.5

Mets vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -135 0.5 -110
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Luis Guillorme 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Mets vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Luis Guillorme 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Mets vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Strider 6.5 +100 6.5 -145
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 83 games (+19.17 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 59 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 76 games (+4.00 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 108 games (+17.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 108 games (+12.77 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 108 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 74 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 55-54 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -4.35% ROI).

  • 64-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.2% ROI
  • 56-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 1.91% ROI
  • 49-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -10.59% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 59-49 against the Run Line (+12.25 Units / 9.39% ROI).

  • 69-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.75 Units / 11.18% ROI
  • 57-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 6.14% ROI
  • 45-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.15 Units / -14.51% ROI

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (133 SO in 347 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 40% (141/353) against Spencer Strider this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .174 (54-for-311) against Spencer Strider this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has allowed an OPS of just .298 (90 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .692 — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jacob deGrom has a strikeout rate of 63% (256 SO in 405 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .197 (609 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (551/1,337) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Jacob deGrom has not allowed a walk in his last 103 PAs against a LHH dating back to May 25th, 2021 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 37-22 (.627) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Braves are 28-3 (.903) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Braves are 44-6 (.880) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Braves are 7-2 (.778) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 58-15 (.795) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Mets are 50-5 (.909) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Mets are 35-21 (.625) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Mets are 25-5 (.833) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

Braves hitters are slugging .672 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters are slugging .495 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,105 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .271 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .901 (520 PA’s) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

The Mets are batting .292 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dominic Smith (Mets): Ankle, D10
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Lower body, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Ford (Braves): Neck, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.