Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 26, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (58-40) are -120 favorites vs the Phillies (50-46)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (4-3), 3.02 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (6-7), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Atlanta Braves (-120) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+100) on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 58-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 50-46 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +140O 7.5 -120-120
Phillies +1.5 -165U 7.5 +100+100

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 66.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 60 of his last 86 games (+19.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games (+18.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 50 of his last 84 games (+15.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 49 of his last 86 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 45 games (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.50 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 32 games at home (+11.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Darick Hall 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Bryson Stott 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Darick Hall 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Darick Hall 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 7.5 -105 7.5 -135
Spencer Strider 7.5 -125 7.5 -115
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 72 games (+19.22 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 away games (+8.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+12.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 91 games (+10.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+8.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-48 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.86% ROI).

  • 58-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
  • 50-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.74% ROI
  • 45-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -10 Units / -9.28% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 50-46 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 3.99% ROI).

  • 50-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -3.4% ROI
  • 49-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.8% ROI
  • 44-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.65 Units / -9.13% ROI

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 38% (114 SO in 301 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 41% (81 SO in 199 PAs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 47% (36 SO in 77 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 45% (45 SO in 100 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has walked 16 of 488 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (43 Total Bases / 74 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .113 (6-for-53) against Aaron Nola on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 5 of 261 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 24-3 (.889) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 34-10 (.773) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 25-19 (.568) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 9-34 (.209) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 25-22 (.532) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Phillies are 10-34 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .113.

Braves hitters are slugging .698 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters have 228 extra-base hits out of 549 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .500 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Phillies hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters are slugging .612 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.64 (383.1 IP) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.8 MPH since the start of last season (6,238 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.