- The Braves (42-32) are +100 favorites vs the Phillies (39-35)
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.84 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (6-4), 2.77 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 42-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-37 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | +100 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -120 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 60 games (+29.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 62 games (+20.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 60 games (+19.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 59 games (+16.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.55 Units / 131% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.70 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +105 |
| Zack Wheeler | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 48 games (+15.82 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -3.28% ROI).
- 42-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.05% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.15 Units / 2.64% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -10.85% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 39-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.46% ROI
- 41-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 8.44% ROI
- 31-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -17.12% ROI
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 15-3 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .675.
The Braves are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Phillies are just 0-6 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Phillies are 14-5 (.737) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .675.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .753 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves hitters have 213 extra-base hits out of 493 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .439 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,483 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Phillies hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
The Phillies are just 0-6 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60
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