Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (42-32) are +100 favorites vs the Phillies (39-35)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (4-3), 4.84 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (6-4), 2.77 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Atlanta Braves (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 42-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 37-37 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +165O 7.5 -120+100
Phillies +1.5 -200U 7.5 +100-120

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 60 games (+29.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 62 games (+20.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 60 games (+19.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 41 of his last 59 games (+16.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+6.55 Units / 131% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+5.70 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+5.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Phillies vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryson Stott 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Phillies vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Bryson Stott 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -140 0.5 +100

Phillies vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Phillies vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton 6.5 -150 6.5 +105
Zack Wheeler 7.5 +100 7.5 -145
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 48 games (+15.82 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games (+5.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -3.28% ROI).

  • 42-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -1.05% ROI
  • 38-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.15 Units / 2.64% ROI
  • 33-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -10.85% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -1.15% ROI).

  • 39-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -2.46% ROI
  • 41-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 8.44% ROI
  • 31-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -17.12% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 15-3 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .675.

The Braves are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Phillies are just 0-6 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-26 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Phillies are 14-5 (.737) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .675.

Braves hitters are slugging .753 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Braves hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves hitters have 213 extra-base hits out of 493 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .439 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Phillies are 8-27 (.229) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,483 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .696.

Phillies hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

The Phillies are just 0-6 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .253 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.