- The – (85-37) are favorites vs the – (85-37)
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (15-5), 3.13 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-9), 4.48 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, August 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 75-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 61-58 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 65 of his last 113 games (+17.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 37 away games (+16.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 54 of his last 75 games (+15.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in his last 8 away games (+11.45 Units / 143% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.40 Units / 93% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 39 games at home (+16.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 45 games at home (+15.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 40 games at home (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games at home (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +110 |
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 99 games (+21.22 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 37 away games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 33 away games (+7.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 58 away games (+6.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 64-58 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.36% ROI).
- 75-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 4.71% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 0.26% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.95 Units / -8.94% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.3% ROI).
- 46-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -5.11% ROI
- 52-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 59-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 1.29% ROI
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (114/188) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 21 double plays in 113 opportunities (19%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has allowed an OPS of just .582 (267 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 86th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 30% (106/358) against Kyle Wright this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 83rd Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .421 (221 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .419 (175-for-418) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (527/948) since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .342 (51-for-149) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 141 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 30-4 (.882) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 68-14 (.829) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Braves are 53-7 (.883) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 2-62 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Pirates are just 44-66 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .671 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .554.
Braves hitters have 242 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .309 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters are slugging .490 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .656 (3,268 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .293 (3,268 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .221 (5,500 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 223 of 2,474 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 2,990 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,280 of 13,077 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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