Braves vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (65-46) are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox (54-57)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (13-5), 3.21 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-8), 4.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 65-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 56-55 ATS.

Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 +110O 9 -105-145
Red Sox +1.5 -135U 9 -115+120

Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 68 games (+19.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 67 of his last 99 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 97 games (+15.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 99 games (+15.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.50 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 46% ROI)

Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jarren Duran 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000

Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jarren Duran 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jarren Duran 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pivetta 5.5 -150 5.5 +105
Kyle Wright 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 85 games (+16.92 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 61 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+1.40 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 82 games (+7.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 91 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 77 games (+3.40 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 82 games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-55 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -4.75% ROI).

  • 65-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.19% ROI
  • 57-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 2.7% ROI
  • 49-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -11.29% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-55 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.62% ROI).

  • 54-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -6.88% ROI
  • 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -5.16% ROI
  • 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -2.12% ROI

Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 50% (206/412) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (97/163) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (186/357) against Kyle Wright this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .317 (69 Total Bases / 218 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — 86th Percentile.

Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have chased just 120 of Nick Pivetta’s 523 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has walked 16 of 129 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (69/397) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (48/136) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Braves are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Braves are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 29-3 (.906) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Red Sox are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Red Sox are just 5-8 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 44-8 (.846) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Red Sox are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .843 (847 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

Braves hitters are slugging .494 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have not walked any of the 61 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (492.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Red Sox pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.