- The Braves (65-46) are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox (54-57)
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (13-5), 3.21 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-8), 4.51 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Atlanta Braves (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 65-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 56-55 ATS.
Braves vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +110 | O 9 -105 | -145 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -135 | U 9 -115 | +120 |
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 68 games (+19.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 67 of his last 99 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 97 games (+15.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 57 of his last 99 games (+15.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+13.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Red Sox vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Red Sox vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Red Sox vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 85 games (+16.92 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 61 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+1.40 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 82 games (+7.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 91 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 77 games (+3.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 82 games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-55 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -4.75% ROI).
- 65-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.19% ROI
- 57-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 49-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.8 Units / -11.29% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 56-55 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.62% ROI).
- 54-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -6.88% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -5.16% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -2.12% ROI
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 50% (206/412) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (97/163) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (186/357) against Kyle Wright this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .317 (69 Total Bases / 218 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .390 — 86th Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 120 of Nick Pivetta’s 523 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has walked 16 of 129 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (69/397) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (48/136) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Braves are 7-3 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 29-3 (.906) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 5-8 (.385) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 44-8 (.846) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Red Sox are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .843 (847 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Braves hitters are slugging .494 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have not walked any of the 61 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (492.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Red Sox pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Red Sox vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Groin, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Leg, Day-to-Day
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