Braves vs Rockies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 1:49 PM
  • The Braves (26-27) are -175 favorites vs the Rockies (23-29)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (1-2), 2.826 ERA
  • Rockies starting pitcher: Kyle Freeland (1-5), 4.956 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-175) visit Coors Field to take on the Colorado Rockies (+145) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10pm EDT in Denver.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Braves vs Rockies Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 26-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Rockies are 23-29 ATS.

Braves vs. Rockies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -120O 11.5 -115-175
Rockies +1.5 +100U 11.5 -105+145

Braves vs Rockies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Rockies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 41 games (+12.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+12.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+11.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 47% ROI)

Best Rockies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Connor Joe has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • C.J. Cron has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Ryan McMahon has hit the Total Bases Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.10 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1H Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.97 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1H Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1H Total Over in 23 of their last 41 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 26-27 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -3.84% ROI).

  • 26-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -13.08% ROI
  • 29-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.2 Units / 10.57% ROI
  • 21-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.65 Units / -18.33% ROI

Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 23-29 against the Run Line (-11.85 Units / -17.53% ROI).

  • 23-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -7.75% ROI
  • 29-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 8.01% ROI
  • 22-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -17.59% ROI

Spencer Strider has a strike rate of 81% (120/148) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 76% of Spencer Strider’s pitches (112/148) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — 100th Percentile.

82% of Spencer Strider’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strike rate of 76% (135/177) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.

Kyle Freeland: Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

10 of Kyle Freeland’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 55 of Kyle Freeland’s 273 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 41% (197/483) against Kyle Freeland on changeups since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 52% — second Percentile.

10 of Kyle Freeland’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 93rd Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies

The Braves are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Braves are just 22-5 (.815) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Braves are just 1-22 (.043) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.

The Braves are just 3-13 (.188) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Rockies are 18-5 (.783) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

The Rockies are just 7-15 (.318) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .481.

The Rockies are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Rockies are just 20-23 (.465) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

 

Braves hitters are slugging .732 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .557.

The Braves are batting .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Braves hitters have 370 strikeouts in 1,414 PA’s (26%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves hitters have 189 extra-base hits out of 438 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Rockies hitters have an OBP of .360 (536 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Rockies are batting .295 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Rockies are batting .280 at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Rockies have won just 25% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Braves pitchers have walked 46 of 473 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Braves pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

The average home run distance against the Braves pitchers since the start of last season is 403.4 feet — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.9

The longest HR allowed by the Rockies pitchers this season traveled 496.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 452.7

Rockies pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 10% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rockies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Rockies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kristopher Bryant (Rockies): Back, D10
  • Scott Oberg (Rockies): Arm, D60
  • Helcris Olivarez (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Freeland (Rockies): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Ryan Rolison (Rockies): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D10
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Undisclosed, D60
  • Randy Jackson (Braves): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.