- The Brewers (57-46) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (41-62)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (3-2), 4.42 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Tyler Beede (1-1), 3.12 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Milwaukee Brewers (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 57-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 53-50 ATS.
Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -115 | -200 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | +170 |
Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games at home (+15.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games at home (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh VanMeter | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 away games (+1.85 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+0.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games at home (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-59 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -15.1% ROI).
- 57-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -6.44% ROI
- 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.4 Units / -9.18% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -2.95% ROI).
- 41-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -3.03% ROI
- 43-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.8 Units / -13.98% ROI
- 54-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 5.96% ROI
Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .091 (36-for-395) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 46% (97 SO in 211 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .157 (53-for-337) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (36-for-369) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .188 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Beede: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Beede has a strikeout rate of just 14% (24 SO in 177 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 8% (12/153) against Tyler Beede on fastballs this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Tyler Beede has struck out just 15% (13/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (8/53) against Tyler Beede on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 5-22 (.185) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Brewers are 31-26 (.544) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 39-52 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 4-46 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Pirates are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .688 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Brewers hitters have 254 strikeouts in 1,036 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .220 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,037 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,440 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,309 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 274 of 2,825 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 960 of 10,122 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Right Forearm, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
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