Brewers vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (57-46) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (41-62)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (3-2), 4.42 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Tyler Beede (1-1), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Milwaukee Brewers (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).

The Brewers vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 57-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 53-50 ATS.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 -125O 8.5 -115-200
Pirates +1.5 +105U 8.5 -105+170

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Kolten Wong has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games at home (+15.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games at home (+13.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games at home (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.10 Units / 32% ROI)

Pirates vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kevin Newman 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Pirates vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Kevin Newman 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Pirates vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Kevin Newman 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Pirates vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Freddy Peralta 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 83 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+8.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 37 away games (+1.85 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+0.75 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+9.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games at home (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 44-59 against the Run Line (-18.9 Units / -15.1% ROI).

  • 57-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -6.44% ROI
  • 52-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.49% ROI
  • 46-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.4 Units / -9.18% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -2.95% ROI).

  • 41-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -3.03% ROI
  • 43-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.8 Units / -13.98% ROI
  • 54-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 5.96% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .091 (36-for-395) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 100th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 46% (97 SO in 211 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .157 (53-for-337) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .098 (36-for-369) against Freddy Peralta when ahead in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .188 — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Beede: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tyler Beede has a strikeout rate of just 14% (24 SO in 177 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 8% (12/153) against Tyler Beede on fastballs this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Tyler Beede has struck out just 15% (13/84) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (8/53) against Tyler Beede on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — fourth Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 7-5 (.583) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 5-22 (.185) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Brewers are 31-26 (.544) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Pirates are just 84-22 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 39-52 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Pirates are just 4-46 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Pirates are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .688 (2,575 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Brewers hitters have 254 strikeouts in 1,036 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates are batting just .220 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Pirates are batting just .146 with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .657 (3,037 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Brewers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.6 MPH this season (2,440 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 215 of 2,309 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 274 of 2,825 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 960 of 10,122 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Pirates vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Nicolaus Mears (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jacob Marisnick (Pirates): Toe, D10
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Right Forearm, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.