- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Brewers vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Brewers / Reds TV Channel: FOX
The Milwaukee Brewers (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Saturday, August 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Brewers are 79-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 74-62 ATS.
Brewers vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Brewers starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 6-9, 4.64 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Fernando Cruz 3-8, 5.12 ERA
Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | +100 |
Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+17.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.05 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+18.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rece Hinds has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+16.20 Units / 231% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 131 games (+15.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 135 games (+15.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 107 games (+11.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 135 games (+11.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+14.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games at home (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 118 games (+9.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+0.80 Units / 2% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 72-63 against the Run Line (+6.25 Units / 3.5% ROI).
- 79-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.55 Units / 9.16% ROI
- 72-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.55 Units / 9.2% ROI
- 54-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.5 Units / -17.04% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 74-62 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 3.03% ROI).
- 64-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 64-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -4.86% ROI
- 64-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -4.53% ROI
Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (MIL) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .145 (8-for-55) against Frankie Montas this month (5 games) — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 94th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OBP of just .111 (27 PA’s) against right-handed batters in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (318/607) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OPS of just .349 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — 3rd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .702 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 44% (72/164) against Fernando Cruz this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 44% (104/235) against Fernando Cruz this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Fernando Cruz has a strikeout rate of 66% (120 SO in 183 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Fernando Cruz has allowed a just .263 SLG vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 91st Percentile and .568 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified RPs)– first Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 35-76 (.315) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 46-3 (.939) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Brewers are 58-55 (.513) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Brewers are 62-38 (.620) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 11-23 (.324) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Reds are just 107-140 (.433) after a loss since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 149 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .487 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Brewers hitters have 1,082 strikeouts in 4,517 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have chased 11% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters are slugging just .146 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Reds are batting just .232 against LHP this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Brewers pitchers this month (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 10 of 241 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (27 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Brewers pitchers this month (27 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 7.08 (123.1 IP) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
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