Cardinals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (47-34) are -145 favorites vs the Cardinals (44-38)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Neil Pallante (2-3), 2.10 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (6-5), 5.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The St. Louis Cardinals (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Cardinals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 44-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 42-39 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals+1.5 -155O 9.5 -105+120
Braves -1.5 +125U 9.5 -115-145

Cardinals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Dylan Carlson has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+7.70 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 46 of his last 67 games (+27.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 44 of his last 67 games (+18.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 45 of his last 66 games (+16.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 41 of his last 69 games (+15.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+15.20 Units / 61% ROI)

Braves vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Matt Olson 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Braves vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Braves vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Matt Olson 0.5 +105 0.5 -150

Braves vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ian Anderson 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
Andre Pallante 3.5 +125 3.5 -185
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 77 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 59 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+0.95 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 55 games (+20.82 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 69 games (+5.90 Units / 8% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 45-37 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 5.27% ROI).

  • 44-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -1.4% ROI
  • 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -2.49% ROI
  • 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -6.48% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 42-39 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.43% ROI).

  • 47-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 0.95% ROI
  • 41-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 0.73% ROI
  • 37-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -9.19% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (79/119) against Andre Pallante in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (113/175) against Andre Pallante this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (31/44) against Andre Pallante — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (50/77) against Andre Pallante this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ian Anderson has allowed an OPS of 1.218 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .751 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .472 (72 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .318 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (69/203) against Ian Anderson on low breaking pitches this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.

Ian Anderson has allowed a slugging percentage of .746 (47 Total Bases / 63 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .433 — third Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Cardinals are 18-5 (.783) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Cardinals are 37-1 (.974) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .920.

The Cardinals are 35-1 (.972) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Cardinals are 27-5 (.844) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 25-17 (.595) at home this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Braves are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Braves are 22-17 (.564) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

Cardinals hitters have 188 extra-base hits out of 431 total hits (44%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have 215 extra-base hits out of 503 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .792 (1,872 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.

The Cardinals are batting .266 against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Braves hitters are slugging .737 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Braves hitters have 220 extra-base hits out of 509 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 200 total hits (46%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 262 extra-base hits out of 616 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals pitchers have walked 74 of 726 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 83 double plays in 621 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
  • Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Génesis Cabrera (Cardinals): COVID-19, D10
  • Harrison Bader (Cardinals): Foot, D10
  • Johan Oviedo (Cardinals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy McFarland (Cardinals): Illness, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadier Molina (Cardinals): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.