- The Nationals are -125 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Cardinals / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSMW
The St. Louis Cardinals (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-125) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Cardinals are 46-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 51-37 ATS.
Cardinals vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Lance Lynn 4-3, 3.57 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 6-7, 3.45 ERA
Cardinals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -110 | -125 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.95 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+5.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 80 games (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 44-43 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.22% ROI).
- 46-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -2.73% ROI
- 38-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 44-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 2.32% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 51-37 against the Run Line (+9.73 Units / 8.54% ROI).
- 41-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 8.46% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.38% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.47 Units / -1.51% ROI
Nationals vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Nationals vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Lance Lynn (STL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn has located his fastball away 55% of the time (513/940) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
24 of Lance Lynn’s 89 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 96th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has located his pitches away 62% of the time (278/449) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed an OPS of .799 (441 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — seventh Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (81/251) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (62/192) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (219/395) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (18-for-48) against MacKenzie Gore on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — fifth Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 4-20 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .366.
The Cardinals are just 7-110 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cardinals are just 21-32 (.396) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Cardinals are 17-11 (.607) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 62-104 (.373) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 79-124 (.389) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Cardinals are batting just .219 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .334 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .308 (1,241 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Carlson (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Lars Nootbaar (St. Louis Cardinals): Ribs, 10-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Packy Naughton (St. Louis Cardinals): Elbow, Out
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