Cardinals vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 22, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (83-66) are -155 favorites vs the Cardinals (87-63)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty (0-1), 5.08 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.16 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The St. Louis Cardinals (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 86-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 65-82 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals+1.5 -160O 8 -110+125
Padres -1.5 +135U 8 -110-155

Cardinals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Cardinals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)

Padres vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Josh Bell 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Juan Soto 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Padres vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Josh Bell 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Juan Soto 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Padres vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Josh Bell 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Padres vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Jack Flaherty 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 82-67 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 5.71% ROI).

  • 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 2.61% ROI
  • 69-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -7.81% ROI
  • 74-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -0.92% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 65-82 against the Run Line (-23.15 Units / -12.65% ROI).

  • 82-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -4.4% ROI
  • 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -7.89% ROI
  • 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.49% ROI

Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .412 (34 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (35/71) this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.

Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 60% (161/269) this month (3 games) — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .333 (10-for-30) against Jack Flaherty with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .164 — first Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .274 (17-for-62) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — 93rd Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,275/2,958) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (609/1,450) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (174/672) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 67-4 (.944) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .805.

The Cardinals are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Cardinals are 35-13 (.729) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Padres are 68-21 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Padres are 29-8 (.784) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Padres are 27-9 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .467 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cardinals hitters have 247 extra-base hits out of 575 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .802 (2,513 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .461 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters have just 27 strikeouts in 214 PA’s (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 380 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres pitchers have walked 79 of 1,329 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Padres have won 42% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Padres vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.