- The Padres (83-66) are -155 favorites vs the Cardinals (87-63)
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty (0-1), 5.08 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (10-7), 3.16 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The St. Louis Cardinals (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 86-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 65-82 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -155 |
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Padres vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
| Jack Flaherty | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 82-67 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 5.71% ROI).
- 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 69-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -7.81% ROI
- 74-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -0.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 65-82 against the Run Line (-23.15 Units / -12.65% ROI).
- 82-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -4.4% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -7.89% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.49% ROI
Jack Flaherty: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .412 (34 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (35/71) this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 60% (161/269) this month (3 games) — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (10-for-30) against Jack Flaherty with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .164 — first Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .274 (17-for-62) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,275/2,958) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (609/1,450) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (174/672) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cardinals are 15-4 (.789) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 67-4 (.944) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Cardinals are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Cardinals are 35-13 (.729) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Padres are 68-21 (.764) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 29-8 (.784) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Padres are 27-9 (.750) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .467 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters have 247 extra-base hits out of 575 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .802 (2,513 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .461 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters have just 27 strikeouts in 214 PA’s (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 18 of 380 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 79 of 1,329 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Padres have won 42% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Neck, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
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