Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Cardinals (82-58) are -165 favorites vs the Pirates (51-87)
  • Cardinals starting pitcher: José Quintana (5-6), 3.40 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (5-10), 4.22 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The St. Louis Cardinals (-165) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cardinals are 79-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 66-68 ATS.

Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cardinals-1.5 +100O 7.5 -110-165
Pirates +1.5 -120U 7.5 -110+140

Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cardinals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+14.60 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 away games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 39 away games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 away games (+11.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 49 games at home (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 games at home (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Pirates vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Greg Allen 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jason Delay 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Kevin Newman 0.5 +1150 0.5

Pirates vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Greg Allen 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jason Delay 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Michael Chavis 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Pirates vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Greg Allen 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jason Delay 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Kevin Newman 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Pirates vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
Jose Quintana 3.5 -250 3.5 +175
Jose Quintana 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 58 away games (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 56 games (+1.30 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 11% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 77-60 against the Run Line (+14.25 Units / 8.35% ROI).

  • 79-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.75 Units / 4.01% ROI
  • 65-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -5.32% ROI
  • 66-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -3.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 66-68 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -6.07% ROI).

  • 50-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -7.3% ROI
  • 59-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -9.75% ROI
  • 67-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 1.42% ROI

Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (195/349) of right-handed hitters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — third Percentile.

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 51% (330/650) of the time since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has struck out just 18% (86/485) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 11th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has walked 36 of 485 right-handed batters (7%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 19th Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .409 (237 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .418 (184-for-440) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .314 (133-for-423) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.

The average home run distance against Mitch Keller against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 388.4 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cardinals are 35-12 (.745) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Cardinals are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Cardinals are 12-9 (.571) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 68-19 (.782) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Pirates are just 89-24 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 35-9 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .884.

The Pirates are just 22-45 (.328) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Pirates are just 28-41 (.406) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Cardinals hitters have 245 extra-base hits out of 567 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .811 (2,446 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Cardinals hitters have 272 extra-base hits out of 639 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cardinals hitters are slugging .474 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Pirates are batting just .144 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .303 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 139 double plays in 1,058 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,096 of 11,449 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 229 of 2,606 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 288 of 3,122 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.67 runs per game (229/137) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

Pirates vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Thumb, D10
  • Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
  • Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.