- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Cubs / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-155) on Tuesday, August 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Cubs are 59-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 59-60 ATS.
Cubs vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 5-3, 3.26 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Cubs vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +130 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -105 | -155 |
Cubs vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 49 games (+34.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 41 games (+23.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+20.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+18.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games at home (+61.50 Units / 246% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+12.45 Units / 101% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 119 games (+13.47 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 52 games at home (+4.50 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 58-62 against the Run Line (-16.35 Units / -9.86% ROI).
- 59-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -1.8% ROI
- 53-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -12.33% ROI
- 63-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 3.64% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 59-60 against the Run Line (+0.15 Units / 0.1% ROI).
- 70-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.47 Units / 8.85% ROI
- 58-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -1.22% ROI
- 54-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.8 Units / -7.51% ROI
Guardians vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad (CHC) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
| Matthew Boyd (CLE) | 5.5 +145 | 5.5 -200 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .142 (30-for-211) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .134 (25-for-186) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (339/843) against Javier Assad this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Javier Assad has allowed an OBP of just .234 (218 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Cubs are just 50-49 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Cubs are 17-10 (.630) after a home loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Cubs are just 8-106 (.070) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Cubs are just 13-175 (.069) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Guardians are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 20-22 (.476) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Guardians are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Guardians are 52-2 (.963) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 156 double plays in 1,995 opportunities (8%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Cubs are batting .263 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Cubs hitters are averaging 3.96 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .527 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .283 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,178 strikeouts in 11,852 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have just 3,132 strikeouts in 16,656 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.24 (533.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.88 runs per game (105/119) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .228 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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