- The Orioles (61-56) are -160 favorites vs the Cubs (49-67)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-3), 3.88 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Spenser Watkins (4-2), 4.23 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Chicago Cubs (+135) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-160) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Orioles Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 49-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 76-41 ATS.
Cubs vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -120 | +135 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +120 | U 9 +100 | -160 |
Cubs vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s matchup with 67.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 61 games (+20.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+19.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+16.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 47 games at home (+16.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 45 games at home (+14.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games at home (+13.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryan McKenna has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
Orioles vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Orioles vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -300 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Cedric Mullins | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Orioles vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Santander | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Mateo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spenser Watkins | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +115 |
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 97 games (+28.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 97 games (+28.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+9.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 94 games (+7.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 59-57 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.25% ROI).
- 49-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.25 Units / -12.23% ROI
- 50-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -11.45% ROI
- 59-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 3.24% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 76-41 against the Run Line (+26.9 Units / 17.41% ROI).
- 61-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.5 Units / 19.85% ROI
- 55-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.35 Units / -4.97% ROI
- 57-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2.72% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (15 Total Bases / 25 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (2 games) — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .406 — 12th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed a slugging percentage of .591 (13 Total Bases / 22 ABs) at home this month (1 games) — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 12th Percentile.
Spenser Watkins: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22 of Spenser Watkins’ 46 strikeouts (48%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (41/133) against Spenser Watkins this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (35-for-103) against Spenser Watkins versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .256 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (6/29) against Spenser Watkins — 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 94th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Cubs are just 18-99 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Cubs are just 25-33 (.431) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Cubs are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Orioles are 7-48 (.127) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Orioles are 44-1 (.978) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Orioles are 33-21 (.611) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Orioles are just 28-35 (.444) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 341 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Cubs hitters have 2,631 strikeouts in 10,372 PA’s (25%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have just 13 strikeouts in 89 PA’s (15%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have 340 strikeouts in 1,371 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 41% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.82 (1135.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Orioles vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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