- The – (63-30) are favorites vs the – (63-30)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (2-5), 4.22 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2), 4.82 ERA
- Watch the game on Peacock
The Chicago Cubs () visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies () on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 37-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-45 ATS.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | O | ||
| Phillies | U |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+17.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 41 games (+15.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.10 Units / 51% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+17.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt Vierling | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 93 games (+12.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 33 away games (+7.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 48-46 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -4.66% ROI).
- 37-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -15.35% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.18% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -2.03% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-45 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 4.07% ROI).
- 49-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 48-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.87% ROI
- 43-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.65 Units / -9.32% ROI
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (729/2,022) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
9 of Drew Smyly’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (152/544) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total CB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (361/855) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 18-32 (.360) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Cubs are just 11-45 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cubs are 114-5 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Cubs are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-33 (.195) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 40-2 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Phillies are 9-33 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 299 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have put just 31% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have 1,791 strikeouts in 6,995 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .646 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are just 1-10 (.091) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies hitters are slugging .614 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Phillies hitters have drawn 103 walks in 1,029 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 27 walks in 497 PA’s (5%) against RHP this month (17 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 41 of 366 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .264 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .250 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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