- The Rangers are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson, 21.60 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Cole Winn, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (+105) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Tuesday, March 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Surprise.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Rangers Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Cubs are 7-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 5-2 ATS.
Cubs vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 11 -115 | +105 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +145 | U 11 -105 | -125 |
Cubs vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alfonso Rivas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+16.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 123 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 37.67% ROI).
- 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 49.76% ROI
- 2-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
- 6-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 39.39% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 5-2 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 35.08% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 11.88% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 20.25% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -28.76% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson induced opposing hitters to ground into 14 double plays in 61 opportunities (23%) last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson had a strikeout rate of just 6% (6/106) in PAs ending on inside fastballs last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 14% — fourth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson induced opposing hitters to ground into 7 double plays in 18 opportunities (39%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson allowed an OPS of just .772 (92 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 95th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Winn is making his MLB debut today.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are 11-8 (.579) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 49-11 (.817) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (8,250 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (9,712 PA’s) against RHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Rangers hitters had an OBP of just .295 (4,219 PA’s) against RHP last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rangers pitchers walked 581 of 6,167 batters (9%) last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road since the start of the 2021 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
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